Is Lebanon to be the Sacrificial Lamb for Qom?

United Nations Security Council Resolution 1559 called clearly on Sept 2004 for the “'disbanding and disarmament of all Lebanese and non-Lebanese militias”. This resolution was passed in an effort to help the Lebanese government establish its authority over all Lebanese territory as is the case in any modern independent and sovereign nation state. But unfortunately almost six years have gone by and the Lebanese authorities have failed to disarm the Palestinian people both within and outside the Palestinian refugee camps as well as their failure to get Hezbollah to comply by 1559.

Any follower of the Lebanese current events will tell you that during that period of almost six years, Hezbollah has not only refused to comply with the demands of the international community as well as the requests of the official Lebanese government to do so but has actually amassed a larger cache of arms. Hezbollah has taken advantage of its “military” superiority as to defy the local authorities and to establish undubiously a state within a state. Hezbollah has made a mockery of the idea that the central government has a monopoly over arms and the ability to enforce the laws of the land.
The leadership of Hezbollah passed along to Sayed Hassan Nasrallah who does not hide the fact that he is a strong believer in the concept of Wilayat Al Faqih as promulgated originally by Ayatollah Khomeini and currently by the Grand Ayatollah Khomenei. This is a concept that preaches a special kind of nationalism that demands total allegiance to the spiritual leader (Marja) in Shiism that happens to reside in Qom, Iran.

So it is important to keep in mind that despite the protestations of Hezbollah the primary allegiance of the group and its illegal militia is not to the state of Lebanon and the welfare of its citizens. Instead of a belief in the abstract notion of paying homage to the idea of a state Hezbollah has shown its readiness and willingness to take stands detrimental to the welfare of the state but in accordance to its interpretations of what God has commanded them to do. What better example to illustrate its misguided policies and beliefs than the destructive war of 2006 that Hezbollah initiated against the will of the state and is proud of having done so. It is instructive in this regard to recall the statement attributed to Ambrose Bierce “God and Country are an unbeatable team, they break all records for oppression and bloodshed”.

It is clear that Hezbollah has spread its hegemony over Lebanon and has managed through a combination of deft political maneuvering and “military” intimidation to turn its failure at the ballot box into an actual victory. In addition to all the above abnormalities Hezbollah has even attempted to force the government of Lebanon to declare UNSCR 1559 null and void , in total disregard to the ideas of international jurisprudence.

Iran, the only Marjaia that Hezbollah accepts is in its own way defying the international community over the issue of constructing the ability to build nuclear weapons. This issue has preoccupied the international community for years and appears to be more or less at a deadlock. The level of hatred and animosity between the Iranian regime and the state of Israel is at a feverish level and most observers in the world have come to the conclusion that if the negotiations between Iran and the group of six fails to establish assurances that Iran will not be in a position to build nuclear weapons then the state of Israel will find itself in a position where it must initiate military action.

If such a military confrontation is to take place, then it would be rather costly for the region and the world but I am afraid that a significant burden will be carries by the innocent Lebanese who should be at best by standers in this conflict. Many analysts estimate that Hezbollah has upward of 40,000 missiles and some of these are capable of reaching Tel Aviv. Israel has been working hard to establish an anti missile shield which might be able to offer some protection but odds are against an effective deterrent. Hezbollah has hinted in the past that it will not hesitate to defend Qom in case of an Israeli initiated aggression so it is to be expected that as soon as Mosad determines that Iran is about ready to produce its first nuclear bomb and that the group of six will not prevent that from happening then Israel will initiate a strike that can delay the Iranian plans by a few years.

Let us assume that all of the above is to take place then the real question is whether Hezbollah will add to all its transgressions another one. Will it sacrifice the wellbeing of the Lebanese people in order to act as a loyal soldier of Qom? If it does then this observer feels that Lebanon will be hit very hard and the level of death, suffering and destruction that will have to be carried by the Lebanese people will be impossible to rationalize and explain. If that is to happen then Lebanon will be sacrificed for nothing. The Lebanese people and their representatives should demand answers about Hezbollah’s’ intentions before it is too late. Let us not become the victims of a Hezbollah nationalism, a "nationalism that makes you drunk, then it makes you blind then it kills you". Some believe that an Israeli action is to be expected within nine months.

PS: For those who do not read Arabic: Lebanon is written on the tree and Hassan Nasrallah is saying " We are standing at the side of the cliff and we intend to go forward.