tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8070398623218457672023-11-03T05:44:53.636-04:00Rational republicThis space was created in an effort to encourage constructive dialogue of social, economic, political and environmental issues. There will be a strong focus on developments in Lebanon.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00826733025674909285noreply@blogger.comBlogger257125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-807039862321845767.post-59769739883805602042014-08-17T17:27:00.001-04:002014-08-17T23:16:35.494-04:00A least costly but efficient stimulus for the Lebanese economy.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://ansnuclearcafe.files.wordpress.com/2010/12/image2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://ansnuclearcafe.files.wordpress.com/2010/12/image2.jpg" height="280" width="320" /></a></div>
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The IMF, the World Bank and all the major economic institutions,
both public and private, have been constantly lowering their forecasts for expected
global economic growth during 2014-15.
Add to the above not so bright news the fact that Lebanon is situated in
a neighbourhood that has been rocked by war and political instability for over
3 years and it becomes evident that the Lebanese economy needs economic growth
if for nothing else but to service its international sovereign debt.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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Obviously, tourism a major sector for hard currency earnings
and a substantial employer is not the magnet that it used to be. Not many
people will make war torn areas their destination of choice no matter the
climate and the other physical endowments. The volume of international funds
that flow into the country from Lebanese abroad have also declined with the
relative decline in the rates of economic rates of growth in the rest of the
world. Luckily there is a way for Lebanon to make a substantial sum of funds
available for consumption expenditures that can be guaranteed to stimulate the
level of economic activity.<o:p></o:p></div>
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The idea that I chose to highlight is not new but it is time
for the government to undertake immediate reform of the electricity sector
since the financial burden, besides the economic productivity implications,
carried by the Lebanese private sector is becoming intolerable.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Just take a look at these figures: The official rates
charged by EDL are fictitious, fictitiously low. If an average household is to use about 7200
KWH per year (600 KWH per month) then the monthly charge would be under $50.00.
That would be a phenomenal bargain except for the fact that the national
electricity company (EDL) does not supply even half of that and whatever it
supplies is provided at a loss of over $1 billion a year. It is clear that a
state cannot aspire to be a tourist destination and yet have severe electricity
rationing every day of the year. That, however, is not even half of the story.
Since no household, rich or poor, large or small can afford not to have
electric power 24/7, the Lebanese had to improvise. They did that by setting up
small private electricity generators for every neighbourhood that kicks in as
soon as the government electric power is cut off. These private generators use
the infrastructure of poles and cables of the official grid and are run on diesel
power which is dirty and expensive. Currently it is estimated that the price per
Amp is about $100 and most homes need about 15 Amps and some need 30 Amps or
more. Since neither the Lebanese government nor EDL provide any up-to-date
information about the number of residential subscribers and their estimated
annual consumption this brief analysis assumes that the cost of electricity per
household is about $375.00 per month. (BTW, that is more than twice what a
typical NY family pays for the same amount of electricity although its average
income is probably four times as much).<o:p></o:p></div>
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Based on the above the average annual cost of electricity for
that typical Lebanese household is around $4500.00 which is at least 15% of the
annual earnings of that household. If the Lebanese government can take steps,
and it should, to provide that electricity at an average saving of say $300 per
month per household then the sum for about 1 million households will be $3.6
billion a year. If one is to assume that only half the household are affected
then the annual savings will still amount to $1.8 billion dollars. All such
hypothetical savings will be spent on other consumer goods and thus would help
revive the economy.<o:p></o:p></div>
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So what can the government do about this situation that has
been allowed to fester for over 20 years?
At least 3 things:<o:p></o:p></div>
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<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]-->(1)<span style="font-size: 7pt;"> </span><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">The government can open the field for private
investors and encourage competition. The new field should be tightly regulated
to prevent consumer abuse. If electric utility firms in some of the highest
wage countries in the world can deliver reliable electric power in the range of
$0.1 -0.15 then the average bill for our typical customer should drop to about
$75.00 per month.</span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="text-indent: -0.25in;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]-->(2)<span style="font-size: 7pt;">
</span><!--[endif]-->Encourage through a major well-advertised and well-funded
program the installation of solar collectors on roofs of individual units.
Again such installations are being provided by profit seeking free market
companies in many parts of the developed world at a cost of under $3 per watt.
Our typical household would need a 3.5 KW system in order to produce the
approximate 7200 KWH per annum. This means that an outlay of about $11000.00
would supply the 7200 KWH of electricity for that household for a period of 20
years. That would amount to a payback period of under 21/2 years. No new
buildings should be given permits unless such a PV system is included in the
structure.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]-->(3)<span style="font-size: 7pt;">
</span><!--[endif]-->Construct an offshore wind farm funded by the World
Bank to supply at least 500 MW.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]-->(4)<span style="font-size: 7pt;">
</span><!--[endif]-->Phase in a doubling of the current rate
structure charged by EDL over a period of 2 years.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]-->(5)<span style="font-size: 7pt;">
</span><!--[endif]-->Outlaw any private electricity production by
private contractors that use diesel power.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]-->(6)<span style="font-size: 7pt;">
</span><!--[endif]-->Adopt a delivery charge from each of the new
private large suppliers as a compensation for their use of the present grid.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast">
A program styled around the above parameters
would find EDL operating at a zero deficit, consumers spending less for their
electric needs, a cleaner environment with less CO2 emissions and a more
reliable electricity and competitive electricity. Just the savings from
eliminating the EDL deficit and the excessive unwarranted current payments by
the consumers would provide the treasury with a savings of over $1 billion and
the consumers with about an additional $2 billion of discretionary income. This
sum of about $3 billion represents a 10% in consumer spending based on the
estimate that total consumption amounts to about $30 billion a year. It is also
to be noted that no new funds from the government are called for except to
build an offshore wind mill farm plus adopt a program to spread fund
residential PV systems. I am almost certain that funding for the above programs
can be easily arranged through an international agency since both are self-financing
and thus make no claims on the limited finds of the state.<o:p></o:p></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00826733025674909285noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-807039862321845767.post-24141483452085030192014-06-28T07:50:00.003-04:002014-08-17T23:16:09.771-04:00ME Boundaries are inviolable.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://www.google.com/maps/vt/data=VLHX1wd2Cgu8wR6jwyh-km8JBWAkEzU4,wVGibf-cAedKWv_QHcRZULij9_vfkS2TmlL8DjbPpFQmRTqU9WqJeQxMsP8eT1ESHQJtfiJ4PP-39hxE_eGAG70ly9ZpBZryQhLJ5eI2G3gcrEK1EjYDPzmPQvTJvt_S9rzW2dq-Vl2We4DDpiy4Ked6zEBZRRvu52DI_UNbc4n273_dcRo_pCEw6glMKdscsV8_VjM" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="166" src="https://www.google.com/maps/vt/data=VLHX1wd2Cgu8wR6jwyh-km8JBWAkEzU4,wVGibf-cAedKWv_QHcRZULij9_vfkS2TmlL8DjbPpFQmRTqU9WqJeQxMsP8eT1ESHQJtfiJ4PP-39hxE_eGAG70ly9ZpBZryQhLJ5eI2G3gcrEK1EjYDPzmPQvTJvt_S9rzW2dq-Vl2We4DDpiy4Ked6zEBZRRvu52DI_UNbc4n273_dcRo_pCEw6glMKdscsV8_VjM" width="320" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=807039862321845767" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=807039862321845767" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=807039862321845767" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=807039862321845767" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=807039862321845767" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><br /></div>
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<br />
Exactly 100 years ago Archduke Franz Ferdinand was killed in
Sarajevo on June 28 , 1914. His assassination set off a series of actions and
counter reactions that ended up in one of the greatest tragedies of the 20<sup>th</sup>
century, World War I. This tragedy is relevant to us in more than one way.
Obviously the most basic reason for recognizing this day is the hope that the
more we think about these tragic events the less likely humanity will be
subjected to them again. But another important reason for us is the idea that
WW I was a perfect example of unintended consequences. No one wanted to start a
world war but the assassination spiraled out of control and ended up in a war
that lasted for over 4 years , and resulted in an estimated 37 million
casualties.. But there is another reason for us to think about this issue and
that is that it culminated in freeing the ME from 400 years of Ottoman rule.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br />
So many articles and thinkers have written about how is it
that we might be witnessing the end of Sykes Picot, an agreement that is often
described in negative terms by Arabs and many even go as far as to claim that
all our problems, and there are so many, can be traced to the political
subdivisions that were drawn after the fall of the Ottoman Empire. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br />
I do not subscribe to that vision except in one detail. One
can argue very convincingly that had it not been for WWI, the resulting Mandate
and the Sykes Picot agreement then possibly the Balfour declaration/Promise
might not have been issued and the ME would have been spared the last seventy
years of instability related to the establishment of the state of Israel. But
if we are to set aside the Balfour Declaration then I cannot find much that is
at fault with Sykes Picot. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br />
Note that Figure1<span style="text-indent: -0.5in;"> is a map that would make it clear
that the whole of the Arab world, including</span></div>
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<o:p></o:p></div>
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North Africa, was
ruled by the Ottoman Empire for four centuries . Roughly1516-1916.</div>
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</div>
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<a href="http://mapas.owje.com/img/El-Imperio-Otomano-1299-1699-11773.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://mapas.owje.com/img/El-Imperio-Otomano-1299-1699-11773.jpg" height="187" width="320" /></a></div>
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</div>
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Figure 1: Ottoman Empire Arab World was under Ottoman Rule of Selim I</div>
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</div>
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Then in<span style="text-indent: -0.5in;"> </span><span style="text-indent: -0.5in;">1916 the infamous Sykes Picot subdivided part
of the Ottoman Empire into two regions of influence,</span><span style="text-indent: -0.5in;"> </span><span style="text-indent: -0.5in;">one British and one French. (figure 2) .</span></div>
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<a href="http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/images/maps/sykes1.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/images/maps/sykes1.gif" height="320" width="300" /></a></div>
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<span style="text-indent: -0.5in;"> Figure 2: Note that Sykes Picot did not establish boundaries but only spheres of influence</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="text-indent: -0.5in;">The
Sykes Picot agreement resulted in about 25 </span><span style="text-indent: -0.5in;">years of the</span></div>
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<o:p></o:p></div>
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Mandate Figure 3.</div>
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<br /></div>
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<a href="http://img.4plebs.org/boards/pol/image/1398/62/1398626740262.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://img.4plebs.org/boards/pol/image/1398/62/1398626740262.jpg" height="250" width="320" /></a></div>
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Figure 3: The Mandate powers proceeded to carve out the current countries.(The French gave away Alexandreta to Turkey and initially planned an Alawite Republic as well as a Druze one).</div>
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<br /></div>
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The two Western powers of France and Great Britain divided the area taken away from the Ottoman Empire into t<span style="text-indent: -0.5in;">he current major
countries of the M.E. Figure 3.</span></div>
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<o:p></o:p></div>
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After Sykes Picot gave each of the two European powers an
area of influence they then proceeded to carve up the countries that make up
the current Middle East. But each of the countries created was able to become
independent by the mid 1940’s. Figure 4.</div>
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<a href="http://ocw.nd.edu/arabic-and-middle-east-studies/islamic-societies-of-the-middle-east-and-north-africa-religion-history-and-culture/Images/european-colonialism-in-the-middle-east" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://ocw.nd.edu/arabic-and-middle-east-studies/islamic-societies-of-the-middle-east-and-north-africa-religion-history-and-culture/Images/european-colonialism-in-the-middle-east" height="215" width="320" /></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=807039862321845767" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=807039862321845767" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=807039862321845767" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=807039862321845767" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=807039862321845767" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a></div>
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Figure 4: The current boundaries and dates of independence</div>
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This is an important point since it
makes it clear that the mandate which created the boundaries between Lebanon,
Syria, Iraq, Jordan and Palestine/Israel lasted only for 25 years. </div>
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<o:p></o:p></div>
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Based on the above and the accompanying maps one needs to ask
again whether it was the 25 year mandate or the 400 year Ottoman rule that
played a more crucial role in shaping the identity and culture of the people in
this region. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br />
If, as it is often claimed, that the current political
borders created by the mandatory powers after the Sykes Picot agreement created
political divisions that are not acceptable then why weren’t there any major
movements to correct that flaw and redraw the borders. It is easier to protest
a perceived injustice but is more difficult to prove that such an injustice has
taken place. Would it have been better to the inhabitants of the mandated areas
had these artificial boundaries not been created? Is there a shared national
identity between the residents of these countries in question and are they
ready to accept the other and accept the demands of democracy and
responsibilities of citizenship that would be required in an efficient modern
state? Even if the answer is yes then wouldn’t it be better to create a
federation where each of the member states can control its own internal
affairs. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br />
I am willing to be a Giraffe ;put my neck out <span style="font-family: Wingdings; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-char-type: symbol; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-symbol-font-family: Wingdings;">J</span>; by saying that the
“death of Sykes Picot has been exaggerated” and that the current map of the ME
would hold with very little changes , if any. Ideally the most important
radical change would be the settlement of the Israeli Palestinian question. The
Kurdish issue would not be so much of a problem had Syria, Iran and Turkey been
able to treat all their citizens equally, an autonomous Kurdish region might be
the only other alteration of the current inviolable boundaries. I imagine that
I am saying that ISIS will not fulfill its wish. No backward thinking group of
people ever do. <o:p></o:p></div>
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Figure 4 The mandate was relatively short lived.<o:p></o:p></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00826733025674909285noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-807039862321845767.post-7356377913741178972014-04-18T22:09:00.002-04:002014-04-18T22:09:45.395-04:00Lebanon is a parliamentary democracy and NOT a presidential one.<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://now.mmedia.me/Pages/ImageStreamer/param/MediaID__94b4e533-c870-4424-920c-1f2f17b4b0a6/w__616/h__394/000_nic267547.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="255" src="https://now.mmedia.me/Pages/ImageStreamer/param/MediaID__94b4e533-c870-4424-920c-1f2f17b4b0a6/w__616/h__394/000_nic267547.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
On October 22, 2014 Lebanon would celebrate the 25<sup>th</sup>
anniversary of the Taif accords that ended the Lebanese civil war. That is obviously
an occasion to celebrate and to be grateful that killings, destruction and divisiveness
are no longer on the mind of every Lebanese.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>But such developments do not take place in a vacuum. The solution
arrived at a quarter of a century ago was predicated on a radical change of the
Lebanese political system and I am not referencing the demand by Taif that
Lebanon has to get rid of confessionalism and add a Senate. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
What Taif demanded and what the Lebanese delivered from day
one was a major transformation of the democratic system in Lebanon from being
Presidential to becoming a parliamentarian. But unfortunately, although Lebanon
delivered on its promise many of its citizens carry on as if there was no
change.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The best proof of this willful
act to refuse and acknowledge reality can best be seen in the current maneuvering
regarding the constitutionally mandated Presidential elections in May of this
year.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Maronite’s act as if the
forthcoming President has the power to shape the political agenda, promulgate
laws and make a difference in governance.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
How can Samir Geagea, a declared candidate for the Presidency,
promise that if elected then he would promise to bring about a large number of
fundamental changes in the way Lebanon is run? Doesn’t he realize that the
Lebanese president does not have the constitutional power to deliver on any of
his platform promises? Of course he does but neither he nor the mother
perpetual candidate, Michel Aoun, nor Bkirki nor any of the Maronite leadership
have the internal strength to admit the truth. I guess that this is a perfect
example of what cognitive dissonance is all about. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is the inability to admit the truth when it
contradicts ones desires, just like the fox who claimed that the grapes were
sour when he could not find a way of getting to them.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
It is time, after 25 years, that the Lebanese in general and
the Maronite’s in particular develop the <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>internal <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>courage to face reality and accept that
Lebanon is no longer a Presidential democracy<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>and that there is nothing wrong with that.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Actually Lebanon will be in good company, if
it can only admit that its President is meant to perform essentially ceremonial
functions. That is exactly what the Presidents of Italy, Switzerland, Ireland,
Germany and Israel do. They accept the diplomatic credentials from ambassadors,
, act as ambassadors of good will and are a symbol of the state, a moral symbol
with no power.</div>
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<br /></div>
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Once the Presidential powers are viewed accurately then it becomes
clear that there is no need to wage acrimonious campaigns based around issues
that are not based in reality and that are not constitutional. Of course the
politicians are not speaking the truth to the Lebanese public when they keep
the charade that the office of the Presidency in Lebanon can still influence policy
in a major way. But even if some might chose to excuse politicians for this
major gaffe there is nothing, absolutely nothing, that can <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>excuse the press for its failure to discuss
this idea and to enlighten the public about the truth. The press has a moral
obligation to inform and it has not.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Decision making, in all fields, are not expected to be efficient
and rational unless they are undertaken in an environment of as perfect of knowledge
as possible. In this case the matter is not that difficult to decipher. The
Lebanese President has no say in naming either the Prime Minister or any of the
cabinet members; he does not have the power or the right to vote during any of
the ministerial debates although he can chair such meetings. The Lebanese
constitution does not give the Presidency any executive powers whatsoever
neither does it allow the president to act in any capacity with the
legislature. Under such circumstances should rational people have major
disagreements on who is to be elected to fill such a highly visible but purely
symbolic position?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Samir Geagea, General Michel Aoun, Bkirki and all the other
Lebanese politicians must put an end to this misinterpretation of what the constitutional
presidential powers are. It is time that every Lebanese should read the
constitution to learn the truth and put an end to this corrosive and
unproductive ritual of pretending that Lebanon does not have a parliamentarian
system that dictates a ceremonial role for the presidency. Maybe we should
learn to speak the truth so that it can set us free. </div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00826733025674909285noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-807039862321845767.post-84852695691058238452014-03-15T23:12:00.001-04:002014-03-15T23:13:57.390-04:00The Lebanese Cabinet Must Stop Reinventing the Wheel<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRGb8-RULsrbaTQIZbs3qORdcHt3sRaP_8W_H1nhoUBWE1SBgh5" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="199" src="https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRGb8-RULsrbaTQIZbs3qORdcHt3sRaP_8W_H1nhoUBWE1SBgh5" width="320" /></a></div>
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Many things in life are taken for granted and need not be expressly
mentioned and redefined at every turn. Freedom, liberty, self determination and
by extension the right to be free i.e. to resist occupation, injustice,
exploitation and dictatorship are among these concepts. These ideas are
intrinsic, natural and inalienable. They cannot be taken away.</div>
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Unfortunately there is a propensity in Lebanese politics to
assume that whenever two parties have a different way of interpreting an idea
then the solution is to be “creative” by coming up with a statement that
expresses allegiance and support to both interpretations that are exact
opposites. This is what I shall call the tendency to seek a solution through a superficial
application of the formula of “No winners, No losers.” <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But it
should be obvious that such a formulation is pure sophistry. It alleges that
both parties are right and that no compromise is necessary despite the fact
that each idea is the negation of its counterpart.</div>
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A popular and basic idea in economics is attributed to an
Italian by the name of Pareto. Pareto Optimality is roughly defined as that
allocation when the only way to give Pete is to take away from Paul. If it so
happens that the welfare of Ali may be improved without impinging on that of
Mustafa then we should definitely do so but once we are at the stage where
improving the welfare of one implies taking away from the other then we run
into the problem of winners and losers. In that case an action is justified
once the gains of one side more than compensate for the loses of the other. But,
and that is important, the solution is not predicated on a pretence that there
are no winners and no losers.</div>
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The right to resist is an idea that has strong support all
across the globe and across all institutions of governance. Whether it is the
idea of democracy, freedom of the individual, de-colonization, Universal
Declaration of Human Rights or International Law just to name a few major
international venues, these seminal ideas favour the right to resist. But then
one might ask who is this right given to?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Well, that is an easy question since governments in a democracy derives
its power to rule from the people who have elected it to rule on their behalf.
There ought to be no subsidiarity between the state and its citizens as both
are but one. The state derives its power and legitimacy from the people who
agree to let it rule on their behalf. That is especially true when it comes to
the monopoly of violence and the right to make war and peace. Unless such prerogatives
are monopolized by the state then chaos would be the outcome and vigilantism would
become dominant. That kind of a society would be an invitation to an n
arrangement where no uniform laws are applied to the populace. It would be
nothing but an arrangement based on exceptionalism and favouritism derived from
the ability of each group to deny the power of the state and replace that by
its own illegal militias. That comes very close to a Hobbesian rule of the
jungle.</div>
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So what can we infer from the above?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A cabinet is not chosen every once in a while
to redefine the essential rights and principles on which the state is built.
The rights of citizens, international obligations and the right to declare war
and peace are already spelled out defined and adopted. It would be counterproductive
to attempt to revisit and redefine such principles as if each group is entitled
to its own laws and interpretations. In that case there would be no rationale
for a government. The power of the state cannot be qualified in such a way as
to incorporate challenges to its power. Resistance belongs to the state that is
an expression of the people. If and when the state is no longer deemed to be a
representative of the wishes of its constituents then the citizens would vote
it out of office .The right to resist belongs to all, it is universal and
cannot be appropriated by any group at the expense of others. There is no
exclusivity in resistance and thus the matter ought to be assumed to be true at
all times. There is no benefit from treating this seminal right as an
exclusionary one and above all there is nothing to be gained by pretending that
a problem does not exist since the patient has been given a palliative. Honesty
and courage demand that we stop playing superficial games that do not treat the
root ailment. We have the obligation to note that a position and its negation
cannot coexist within the same healthy body. We either have a state or we do
not. </div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00826733025674909285noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-807039862321845767.post-48953815379525581722014-02-28T23:24:00.000-05:002014-03-05T17:13:03.610-05:00Hezbollah Is Not "Resistance"<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQ7Yhx-V3DZ0mcasaH9xYNFeJXwGvrf488_MCbu3k7OhsuzSip5dw" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="210" src="https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQ7Yhx-V3DZ0mcasaH9xYNFeJXwGvrf488_MCbu3k7OhsuzSip5dw" width="320" /></a></div>
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Every once in a while there is an attempt to confute what is
otherwise clear. That usually occurs when an entity is not well served if the
clear and unobstructed understanding of an idea or concept is to prevail. This
is when it becomes essential to manipulate the truth and spin the facts in an
effort to obstruct clarity and replace it by an intentionally false
interpretation of reality that is masquerading as the truth. This type of
obfuscation has been the primary rationale behind the self serving use of the
term resistance by Hezbollah and its allies. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The unfortunate thing is that they appear to have succeeded
in their effort to such an extent that very few if any, bother to call them on
their misuse and even abuse of the term resistance. It is ironic that no one in
the Lebanese political structure has found it important to set the record
straight and to challenge Hezbollah on its misuse of the term that it seems to
have monopolized.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The right to oppose
any power be it a domestic leader or an invader can be traced over 2000 years.
Historians speak of the Chinese who have initially solidified the right of
people to rebel against their rulers when such rulers lose legitimacy and rule
unjustly. This same right can also be seen in Islamic jurisprudence where it is
said that “there is no obedience in sin”. The right to resist and wage
revolution was also articulated clearly by Thomas Aquinas and later on by both the
American and the French revolution about 250 years ago. If this is not enough
then we must never forget the teaching of Thoreau about the right to use civil
disobedience that was later adopted and applied successfully by Gandhi in India
and Nelson Mandela in South Africa.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
It is no secret that the right to self determination and the
right to resist abuse, injustice and exploitation have been recognized as an inalienable
right. Yes resistance is important and it is intrinsic. What it is not is the
attempt to monopolize it by abrogating it to a subgroup of people who are
intent on using pure raw military power to disenfranchise and even subjugate others.
The right to resist, to dissent, to rebel and disobey belongs to all people, it
is the most universal of ideas. It does not belong to one race, one religion,
one subgroup or what is worse to one political party. Resistance as an idea is
as close to sacred as one can get and any attempt to transform it to a
provincial concept must be viewed as nothing short of sacrilege.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Lebanese political system, an almost perfectly
dysfunctional one to start with because of its sectarian base and political
feudalism has been rendered perfectly dysfunctional by the Hezbollah PR machine
that seems to have convinced practically everyone that the term “resistance”
has only one meaning and that is to describe every kind of activity by the
political party Hezbollah whether in the political, social, economic or even
the military field. That is obviously totally flawed use of the term. </div>
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<br /></div>
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The cost of such a misuse of the term is great. One could
easily suggest that the deep divisions in the current Lebanese body politic are
directly attributable to this confusion. Those who are strongly opposed to the
phrase “people, resistance, army” do so NOT because they do not believe in
their right and in the right of all people all over the world to resist but
because they do not believe for a second, and they are right to have such a
belief, that resistance is not to be treated as a pure monopoly that belongs to
a small group and that the group in question insists that it is entitled to be
treated as a special entity that is above the law and that it can and does use
its military privilege to dictate to the state. They demand support from
everyone and are obligated to no one.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Once the concept of resistance is no longer used as if it is the private
property of a sub group of society then I assure you that there would be no
need to disagree about the meaning of a phrase whose meaning can be deduced
from the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. Resistance belongs to all and
is as intrinsic as any right can be. It is not the property of Hezbollah
despite all its sacrifices in fighting the Israeli occupation forces. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The concept is what justifies the acts and not
the reverse. Exclusivity in resistance is a contradiction , it is in its universality that resistance attains its sacredness.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00826733025674909285noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-807039862321845767.post-41536247430976225802014-02-15T18:40:00.002-05:002014-02-17T20:40:37.709-05:00New Lebanese Cabinet: Born Dysfunctional<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcR69Y_jHdY9GAcKYMFmkMLBlV1KDh2GAVSGMaNfdckQYkur09W2" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="253" src="https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcR69Y_jHdY9GAcKYMFmkMLBlV1KDh2GAVSGMaNfdckQYkur09W2" width="400" /></a></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
A very popular saying by Einstein is specially made to
describe the new Lebanese cabinet. He has reportedly said that “only irrational
people will undertake the same experiment over and over again and yet expect
different results”. It took over 10 months to reshuffle the same deck of cards
of a weak hand to start with and to give birth to a new hand made up of the
same cards but in a different order, an insignificant change. If the first
dealt hand was considered weak then why would reshuffling the order make it
strong? </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
A related feature that needs to be highlighted is the
feeling that each of these politicians is a “Superman”; joined this time by a “wonder
woman” .
Is there any portfolio that Gibran Basil is not eminently qualified for? We are
told that this civil engineer was a perfect fit for Energy and that he did a
great job at Telecommunication. But since background and experience do not
matter in Lebanon, we are told to rest assured that he would be our best
Foreign Minister yet. Some have suggested that he was offered the Education
portfolio also because of his unbelievably strong background in that field. He
is very well read and understands all the trends in what it takes to have a
successful academic outcome for the new generation of Lebanese. That is what “Supermen”
are made for.</div>
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<br /></div>
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Fortunately for us, the Lebanese citizens, Gibran Basil is
not the only Lebanese politician with that great and unique capacity to excel
at any and all government portfolios. Wael Abu Faour, the young PSP politician
is equally blessed, maybe even more so than Mr. Basil. He has already served as
a Minister of State and handled the Social affairs Portfolio. Obviously that is
a perfect background for the Health Ministry which he is to fill in the new
cabinet. He is willing to undertake the responsibility of straightening the
governmental mess at any cabinet that Mr. Jumblat asks him to take. Mr. Faour
is such an obedient and loyal disciple that he will be more than glad to accept
any position as long as Walid Bey asks him to do so. What is more important to
the country? Is it qualifications for a post or is it the blessings of a scion
of one of the oldest Lebanese feudal landlords masquerading as a modern day
socialist?</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Then there is the Shia duo of Fneish and Al Khalil. Each is
so sure of his expertise in all fields that they would never hesitate to take
on the challenge of a new position especially if that coincides with the narrow
interests of the Speaker and Sayed Hasan Nasrallah. Devoted and patriotic
cadres must always be willing to execute any and all demands of their party
leadership. Mr. Fneish conquered all the intricacies of the Energy portfolio
before he accepted the challenge of Labour and two different stints as a State
Minister.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
And what can one say about Mr. Harb, the perennial presidential
candidate and the independent Maronite who will again be willing to march to
any length provided his name will stay in the limelight. This multitalented
lawyer has served as a Public transportation minister, an Education minister as
well as a Labour minister prior to his new role as the chief technologist in
the Telecommunication ministry.</div>
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<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We must not forget
also the willingness of the Kataeb to always offer party support
to any cabinet that will offer them any two portfolios.
The Kataeb , just like the FPM, PSP, Amal and Hezbollah have their own “supermen”
that can perform marvelously at any position.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
And last but not least the Lebanese are blessed to have Al
Mustaqbal a party headed by a citizen who does not dare visit the country and
whose favourite means of communication is a daily Tweet probably worded by his
handlers. One day the Mustaqbal is not willing to join Hezbollah in a cabinet,
the next day they will do so if they get the Cabinet of Interior Affairs to one
of their favourite sons who is a master at sectarianism, Mr. Rifi. But once a
party is essentially leaderless and unprincipled then it is not too difficult
to get them to change their mind again. Obviously they accept to move Mr. Rifi
to the Justice ministry and rationalize their constant changes in positions and
ultimatums by using the thin logic that they will always sacrifice for the sake
of peace and tranquility. Only the weak keep on sacrificing.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
What is obvious after this charade is that this country has
been ruled for a long time by whatever Hezbollah wants. Make no mistake about
it. Hezbollah is the clear cut winner in this unproductive game that has become
the hallmark of Lebanese politics, a game of incompetence and lack of political
maturity. Hezbollah forced the Hariri government to fall, and then they got the
Miqati government to replace it. They managed to postpone the Parliamentary
elections, to help the Syrian regime although they were part of a government that
declared to the world its neutrality in Syria. That is when it became advantageous
for them not to have a cabinet except in a care taker capacity and thus they
forced Miqati to resign. They have been preventing the formation of an
effective cabinet for over 10 months by playing the role of the master puppeteer.
FPM under general Aoun was, as always, more than willing to enforce the wishes
of Hezbollah to a t. But eventually the level of dissatisfaction by all this
dysfunctionality increased to a crescendo and so Hezbollah again comes to the
rescue. They force the Al Mustaqbal to go back on many of their demands, ask
Aoun to stop his obfuscation and get Tamam Salam to escape the label of having
failed to form a cabinet after the longest gestation period in the history of
the country. Mr. Salam has not done himself or the nation any favours. He
should have formed a small cabinet of qualified technocrats 10 months ago and
forced the politicians to take a stand.</div>
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Economists and psychologists tell us that Homo sapiens are
risk averse by nature. I am willing to take the opposite position. I will be a
Giraffe; put my neck out; by saying from the start that this cabinet will not
be any different or more effective than any of the last 4-5 ones. Pity the
Lebanese. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00826733025674909285noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-807039862321845767.post-91493615952658509172014-01-06T23:06:00.000-05:002014-01-06T23:06:20.022-05:00Lebanese Sovereign Debt: A TikingTime Bomb<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://english.ahram.org.eg/Media/News/2011/12/6/2011-634587688829512582-951.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://english.ahram.org.eg/Media/News/2011/12/6/2011-634587688829512582-951.jpg" height="191" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This column has devoted a number of columns over the past
few years what it labeled as the dire need for Lebanon to take major active and
meaningful steps to deal with the danger that the sovereign debt posses for the
whole country. Well, I do hope that you resist the temptation to argue that
since nothing drastic has happened in that specific field then this must mean
that all the warnings can be dismissed as false alarms. That would be the
furthest thing from the truth.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
There are a few reasons why Lebanon has been given a pass so
far despite its mishandling of its sovereign debt. The geopolitical strategic
position of the country in addition to its relatively small size of sovereign
debt in absolute terms plus the good sum of annual immigrant remittance and its
substantial holdings of gold stocks have combined to shelter the economy from
what would have been normal attacks given its weak sovereign debt data. It is
to be noted that a few countries that are in a stronger economic shape than
Lebanon yet they have been subjected to substantial economic pressures that
have forced them to adopt certain policies that will strengthen their financial
foreign accounts.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Please allow me to pose a question that I hope will help
illustrate the difficulties that are threatening Lebanon on the economic front.
Let us assume that the reader has an annual income of $43,000 and that the
total debt accumulated for a variety of reasons amounts to about $62,000.
Assume furthermore that the debt service averages about 7% per annum while the
revenue is not expected to rise by more than 1.5-2% per annum. As you can see
from the above a very simple calculation will show that the increase in revenue
per annum would approximate $800 while the debt service would amount to about $4300
each year. This means that this typical reader will experience an increased
debt load every year and that the debt/income ratio must climb.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
At times inflation can come to the rescue of debtors that
have obtained their borrowings at a fixed long term rate. But this ‘trick’
commonly known as repression will not work in Lebanon since the Lebanese
authorities depend on constantly refinancing the accumulated sovereign debt. It
is also to be noted that even the domestic portion of the sovereign debt will
experience higher interest rates as a result of a high rate of inflation. The
rationale for that is very simple, the banks will not settle for , say 8%
interest rate if the rate of inflation is 7%. Ads the rate of domestic
inflation increases so would the interest rate paid on the domestic portion of
the debt. The same would also hole for the external debt since a high rate of
inflation would affect the rate of foreign exchange and would thus increase the
premiums demanded to insure the Lebanese debt. That in turn will translate into
higher financing burden.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Even the gold
reserves cannot help rescue the economy since once sold then the heath of the
economy would weaken substantially.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The lesson from the above is that the current debt/GDP ratio
of about 144% will deteriorate each and every year even if Lebanon manages to
grow at 3-4% each year. A rough calculation would indicate that by 2020 the
debt/GDP in Lebanon would be expected to be about 175%. That would be one of
the highest rates of indebtedness in the world besides Japan whose total debt
is essentially issued in its own currency.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I am willing to stick my neck out one more time to warn that
the special circumstances that have combined thus far to prevent a severe
financial crisis in Lebanon cannot be relied upon to last forever. Actually, as
Nassim Taleb, the leading financial philosopher in the world has been preaching
for a few years: plan for and expect black swans. Many risk distributions have
thick tails and the probabilities of avoiding major breakdowns are not as large
as what used to be expected even under normal distributions. So how likely is it
for a weak distribution to avoid a major breakdown when it is built on weak
foundations? Not very likely.</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00826733025674909285noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-807039862321845767.post-64913265870945873562013-12-27T21:40:00.001-05:002013-12-28T17:41:13.170-05:00Why Was Mohamad Chatah Assassinated?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSHYl8jkSAEikCkD3PKd8EN50NBR2WybY4AtJofUdftVj1MK8HzEQ" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="223" src="https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSHYl8jkSAEikCkD3PKd8EN50NBR2WybY4AtJofUdftVj1MK8HzEQ" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<span class="userContent" data-ft="{"tn":"K"}">That assassinations are an abominable crime is to be taken
for granted. This is often the act chosen to sow fear in the hearts of
groups of people close to the person killed because the group
responsible for executing the assassination does not recognize the other
and is adam<span class="text_exposed_show">ant at denying them the
ability to compete peacefully for the minds and hearts of everyday
people. Assassinations are nothing but vile crimes. <br /> </span></span><br />
<span class="userContent" data-ft="{"tn":"K"}"><span class="text_exposed_show">Yet one can
find a way to explain the "sick" thought process when a popular
journalist is assassinated : the assassins fear the frequent articles
and essays that are penned by the target and read by the tens of
thousands every day and so they silence the voice that they fear through
bombs and explosives. One can even understand their "sick" explanations
when they decide to silence a powerful politician with a large
following but why would they assassinate such a calm, learned moderate
voice as that of Mr. Chatah? He is neither a powerful politician with a
large following nor a journalist with a daily or weekly column. He was a
gentle soul who believed in democracy, personal freedom and equality.
It is frightening when such peaceful people, as Mr, Chatah, are viewed
as a threat by those that disagree with his views and it is a sign of
total bankruptcy when a decision is made to murder such an innocent,
creative and productive soul. Besides the senslessness of this egregious act which is bound to cause lots of pain to his family and potential trouble for the country two lovely young children have been deprived for no reason of the love, affection and advice that only a loving grandfather can give.grandfather <br /> </span></span><br />
<span class="userContent" data-ft="{"tn":"K"}"><span class="text_exposed_show">Why was Mr. Chatah assassinated? What
is the danger that he posed? A society that views the likes of Mr.
Chatah as dangerous is sick, it is evil.</span></span>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00826733025674909285noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-807039862321845767.post-69211983424300750902013-12-24T12:26:00.001-05:002013-12-24T12:26:18.173-05:00The Syrian Killing Fields: For How Long Can It Go On?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00826733025674909285noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-807039862321845767.post-50791498335140829212013-10-06T07:44:00.001-04:002013-10-08T21:16:03.705-04:00Tamam Salam Must Submit a Cabinet Proposal or Resign.<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<a href="http://anbaaonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Tamam-salam.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="207" src="http://anbaaonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Tamam-salam.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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The current Mikati care taker cabinet of Lebanon submitted
its official resignation on March 22, 2013. Within less than a fortnight <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Mr. Tamam Salam became the new Prime Minister
designate ; just over six months ago.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Not much, if anything has happened since except for the obligatory daily
references that Mr. Salam is still continuing his consultations. The complete
and utter lack of progress in submitting a proposed cabinet to the Lebanese
Chamber of deputies suggests that Mr. Salam has failed in his mission to form a
cabinet and must resign for the good of the country. </div>
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<br /></div>
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The inability of a PM designate to form a cabinet over six months after he was officially charged with the task represents his
failure to perform on the mission that he was entrusted with. It is true that
the Lebanese constitution is silent about the time required to form a cabinet
but common sense and general custom makes it clear that this is not intended to
be an open ended process. I am sure that putting in place strict time limits could be
seen as introducing unnecessary system rigidity but I am also certain that no
constitutional procedure for forming the executive branch of government is ever
expected to go on forever. That would be counterproductive on at least two
grounds: </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
(1) It takes away from many parties the incentive to be flexible in
their demands<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
(2) it extends the
life span of an already failed cabinet whose inability to perform adequately
had forced it to resign. Both of the above presents a strong rationale to place
a time limit on the length of time required by a PM designate before he/she is required
to submit a cabinet formation for a vote of confidence. I am not sure which of
the two above potential results is worse; is it the incentive offered to potential
major players not to compromise or is it to give a failed government the right
to keep on governing.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Mr. Salam has had more than enough time to enter into
serious consultations with each of the 4-6 major political groups represented
in the Lebanese parliament and to learn about their demands and abilities to
act as productive participants in a cabinet led by him. If six months is not
long enough to contact 6 parties then obviously the current process is cumbersome,
inefficient and very badly designed. No one would expect<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>a major institution, governmental,
commercial, not-for-profit or multilateral not to replace its leadership in
short order and for that leadership to set in motion as quickly as possible a
new vision to replace the outgoing unsatisfactory one.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I am sure that Tamam Salam is a decent,
honourable and well meaning person whose only goal is the welfare of the
Lebanese people but that is not enough. There comes a point when intentions
must be actualized, that is ultimately the only tangible measure and that is
what distinguishes the success of one person from the failure of another. </div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Mr. Salam has a moral obligation to come clean with the
Lebanese public after having spent six months in pursuit of the elusive goal of
putting together the best group of people that would help him bring to fruition
his goal of an effective and capable cabinet. How can it be possible that he
could not find 10-30 competent Lebanese nationals who would be privileged to
serve their fellow countrymen overcome the major challenges that the state is
facing. Mr. Salam must let us know in simple and clear terms why he has not
been able to fulfill his task?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
argument that he does not see his task as that of forming a cabinet of the most
qualified but as a cabinet that satisfies the whimsical demands of the selfish,
vain and unpatriotic political leaders does not carry any moral and ethical weight,
actually it is to be rejected on these grounds.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Tamam Salam or any PM designate for that matter is expected
to serve to the best of his ability the greater good and not to submit to the
blackmail of the political establishment. If a group of parliamentarians are
given the chance to play an active productive role but they decline then so be
it. The PM designate should then move to the next best alternative instead of
continuously attempting the square a circle made of non malleable matter. The
prime duty of a PM designate is cabinet formation within a reasonably short
period of time that must not exceed 6-8 weeks. The worst that can happen is to
submit a cabinet proposal and have it voted down by the Chamber. If the Chamber
is to vote down repeatedly an honourable and competent proposed cabinet then
the burden of obstructionism would have been shifted to the Chamber and
consequently to the voters who have elected them.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Mr. Salam has no choice but to submit a proposed cabinet for
the sake of his own personal integrity and for the integrity of the political
system. It is clear that many are very glad to allow the present ineffective
system persist, maybe that has been their primary motivation all along. Mr. Salam
can also short circuit that effort by proposing a cabinet that I am certain he
has been ready to propose for maybe the last 5 months. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00826733025674909285noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-807039862321845767.post-78470960468550982502013-09-22T22:02:00.005-04:002013-09-22T22:02:58.308-04:00Who Rules Lebanon? Its NOT its Elected Officials.<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://worriedlebanese.files.wordpress.com/2007/02/lebanon-hezbollah-hybrid-flag.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="250" src="http://worriedlebanese.files.wordpress.com/2007/02/lebanon-hezbollah-hybrid-flag.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The fact that I do not agree with practically any of the
ideas, believes and concepts that Hezbollah subscribes to is clear and has been
established a long, long time ago. If for nothing else, the fact that I consider
theological beliefs as being discriminatory and when applied to the public
square they form a major interference with the rights of individuals to express
their views is enough grounds to make it clear that there is nothing in common
between the vision of a secularist, democrat who believes strongly in human
rights and cherishes them and the paradigm of a theocrat who follows blindly
the dictate of the religious leader in Qom.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The following is not about these differences that can never
be bridged although I will spare no effort to protect their right to promote
their ideas legally. The following is sort of an expression of admiration of
sorts for the ability of Hezbollah to pretend that they are only another
political party in Lebanon when in effect they are the hegemon that is in total
control of every detail in Lebanese politics.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Every new development demonstrates on a daily basis that
nothing in the country, called Lebanon, ever gets done without the direct
approval or at least the acquiescence of Hezbollah. One can even argue that the
Lebanese official machinery works for Hezbollah. Their domination of the
machinery of state is so complete that it would be no exaggeration to say that
the government was created to serve their every desire.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Some have attributed this dominance to the Iranian ability
to excel in Chess. That is a fair analogy but reality shows that Hezbollah has
managed to go beyond Chess; they have mastered Game Theory which is capable of
beating any human chess player. But does this dominance lend legitimacy to the
extralegal group? The answer is an unequivocal no. And that is the weakness, if
you will, of the Hezbollah dominance. The public accepts it grudgingly but is
awaiting the opportunity to show its rejection of this humiliating experience whereby
a political party pretends to be just another player when in fact it is
threatening, cajoling and blackmailing all others not to demonstrate any
dissent otherwise it will unleash its well armed and well equipped “shock
troops” to quell any disturbance.</div>
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<br /></div>
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Maybe a few examples would help illustrate this point. The
only “democracy” in the world that has no say whether to start a war or not is
that of Lebanon since that power rests totally within the leadership of a
political party, a leadership that has not been elected by Lebanese citizens
and a leadership that does not hide the fact that its major allegiance is to a
foreign theocracy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Maybe that should be
viewed as the Lebanese exceptionalism. :-)</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Another example of the ability of Hezbollah to be in
absolute control of the tiny country is their ability to allow a cabinet to be
formed only whenever it serves their purposes, to ask a cabinet to resign once
Hezbollah feels that it s control of the state will be enhanced in the absence
of an effective cabinet. They were the power that created the Mikati cabinet,
then they were the power that asked it to submit its resignation and they are
the only obstacle that prevents Tamam Salam, the PM designate< from forming
a cabinet.</div>
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<br /></div>
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And last but not least is the idea of self rule, a state
within a state whenever that suits their purposes. Hezbollah, an extralegal
group has given itself the power and the rationale to install, without
government approval, its own communication network, to deploy its own police
and security forces that will even give orders to the official forces.
Hezbollah has the right to send volunteers to join a civil war, it’s their
prerogative but when another group retaliated against Hezbollah by sending suicide
bombers into its stronghold of Dahieh Hezbollah reacted by closing the few
hundred ( maybe thousand) bloc area by installing an armed group at each and
every entry point. They acted with impunity as a state within a state. The
party took the decision to erect these check points and to arm the elements
manning. The state was treated as if it does not exist. It does not.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
As if the above measures were not enough, the part;
Hezbollah; decided to purchase and install some relatively sophisticated
systems at the major entry points into Dahieh that can sniff explosives and
that have the capacity to shoot the drivers of the vehicles that do not comply
with the orders issued by the vigilante group called Hezbollah. This last step
caused some grumbling among many Lebanese citizens and so the Lebanese cabinet
played the game , that it has perfected by now, and declared that as of today
2000 official Lebanese Security and Army personnel will replace the Hezbollah
elements at these check points. The Lebanese Interior Minister in the care
taker government; Mr. Charbel; even had the courage to declare that personal
security measures will not be tolerated. I wonder who is working for whom? It
is clear for this writer that the Lebanese security forces is engaged in
satisfying the total demands of Hezbollah as long as they do not challenge the
party and as long as the wages are paid by the Lebanese citizen. Score the
game, set and match to Hezbollah against a no show opponent. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<br />
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00826733025674909285noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-807039862321845767.post-25538428186636238782013-08-29T21:50:00.005-04:002013-08-29T21:50:41.669-04:00Use of Banned Chemical weapons in Syria and the Moral Obligation to Act<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://wpmedia.news.nationalpost.com/2013/08/syria-chemical-weapons1.jpg?w=620" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="http://wpmedia.news.nationalpost.com/2013/08/syria-chemical-weapons1.jpg?w=620" width="400" /></a></div>
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Is there a moral obligation to do what is right? I imagine
that most of us, one hopes all of us, would concur with the fact that if a
wrong is done and if it is within ones power to right it then one must do so. This,
very simply, is what Peter Singer, one of the world’s most influential
philosophers has always argued for. He actually says that an application of the
above principle would be sufficient to eliminate world poverty since the well
off would give as much as it takes in order to bring up the level of welfare of
the less advantaged to a level that is common to all. This very same principle
can be applied, must be applied whenever the world is faced with a political
situation where those that are in power maintain their hold on their populace
only through fear, tyranny and intimidation. Yes, we do have a moral obligation
to help alleviate the miserable living conditions whenever we can. It is not a
choice but an obligation.</div>
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<br /></div>
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At times one has no choice but to sound redundant and even
banal in an effort to make sure that one’s message is clear. With that in mind
allow me to remind the readers of two popular sayings: (1) There ain’t no such
thing as a free lunch and (2) deontological ethics. Based on the above what is
implied is that if a loved one<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>commits a crime then that person should be responsible for the consequences
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as much as it might hurt, to the authorities.</div>
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<br /></div>
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So what does any of the above has to do with the current
Syrian situation? Allow me to submit that if one agrees with the above then the
implications for those that have committed the violations in the case of
unleashing chemical weapons in Syria are clear and severe. The first thing that
this makes clear is that the personal association with the accused is not a
valid excuse to shrink from ones moral obligation. In the same way that I would
gladly hand over my brother to the authorities if he committed a crime then I
should not let the issue of nationality or race cloud my judgment. If my government
is found responsible for a set of crimes then as much as it might pain me I
should actually encourage the international community when it decides to hold
my government accountable. Obviously the above also rests on the idea that is
justice is to be done then the guilty party will have to pay a price. The idea
that “my country right or wrong” is dangerous, irrational and out of date. No
one should ever want to protect a state when it violates international norms
and agreements that it has signed only on the basis of patriotism. That would
be tantamount to saying that my father is always right even when he commits egregious
crimes.</div>
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The issue that we are facing in Syria is very simple.
Chemical weapons have been used against innocent civilians and in violation of
the Geneva Convention and the Treaty banning the use of such weapons. The first
order of business under these circumstances is to agree that we all have a
moral obligation to do whatever is in our power to hold the violators
responsible for their crimes. Once that is done and it should be an easy and
non contestable proposition then we have to agree on who is responsible for
these illegal acts. Let me stress again, that no one wants to “punish” the
innocent but once the preponderance of evidence, custody over the chemicals,
means of delivery, finger prints of the delivery devices, report from the UN
inspectors, intel intercepts…points rather conclusively to one party or the
other then we must take action irrespective of the pain to our loved ones, our sense
of patriotism, our racial identity, our religious affiliation or anything else
that we can thing off. Nothing, absolutely nothing should protect the guilty. </div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00826733025674909285noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-807039862321845767.post-18695664540156506502013-08-22T22:31:00.001-04:002013-08-22T22:31:11.249-04:00Chemical Weapons in Syria: One Side or the Other Must be Severerly Punished.<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://eaworldview.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/539059_648575721833058_941259052_n-620x350.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="180" src="http://eaworldview.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/539059_648575721833058_941259052_n-620x350.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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No one will be able to forget anytime soon the grotesque
images of the over 1300 bloodless dead Syrians in the suburbs of Damascus any
time soon. I know that these images, especially those of one row after another
of the innocent young children will literally speaking stay with me for the
rest of my life. What the perpetrators have killed is the future; they have snuffed
out the life of many that have nothing in their hearts except love for life and
a great longing for a promising future both for them, their families and for
humanity. This is the most grotesque of crimes, it is a crime against humanity
not only because it employed illegal weapons but also for the wanton disregard
for all that is decent, moral and proper.</div>
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<br /></div>
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Yet, as egregious and as horrible of an act as this is we
must be exceptionally careful not to make false accusations unless we are very
certain of who orchestrated this massacre of innocence. I believe that this
event presents a major fork in the road of this quagmire that has been going on
and getting worse each day for over two years. If solid evidence is presented
showing the complicity of the Syrian regime then it would be difficult and let
me suggest immoral and unethical for the international community not to respond
in strong terms to this monstrous act. This could prove to be the beginning of
the end of this cruel regime that has spread fear and terror among the Syrian
civilians for over forty years. But this is not a certainty. Many experts and
observers have asked many common sense questions that need to be answered prior
to arriving at such a conclusion.</div>
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<br /></div>
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If on the other hand the evidence does point a finger of
blame towards a third party that has conspired to kill the innocents in an
attempt to blame the regime for this horrible act then such a party must be
held accountable for such a diabolical scheme, a scheme that not only killed
the innocent but that betrayed an uprising against illegitimacy. If this is the
case then I am afraid that the regime will capitalize on these events to build
up its support and burnish its credentials. I am afraid that in that case the
dictatorship will get an extension on what appeared to be the end of its life
span. The injustice and tyranny will in that case only grow and become more
entrenched.</div>
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It is never easy to make a serious accusation but it must be
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decision of who did what to whom. This is not an issue that can be taken
lightly irrespective of one’s personal feelings towards one group or the other.
No one wants to bear false witness in order to achieve a particular outcome
since common decency and a strong sense of morality should dictate to us that
an end, as noble and as justifiable as it might be can never justify dishonest,
corrupt and debased means. Surely we can agree that there is a cost that is too
high to pay for any outcome even if it is to tip the balance against the cruel
dictatorship of the Syrian Baath.</div>
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The next few days should prove to be monumental in seeking
the truth. What is needed is unimpeded access to the sites of this gruesome
event, hair and blood samples to be sent to laboratories all over the world as
well as an expert examination of all the video clips and the locations where
the victims died. All of this has to happen within the next day or so if we are
to learn the identity of the true killers. </div>
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<br /></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00826733025674909285noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-807039862321845767.post-44259585967171591872013-07-28T20:50:00.002-04:002013-07-28T20:50:43.724-04:00Photo Voltaic: One initiative to deal with the Lebanese Electricity Shortage.<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<a href="http://www.halcrow.com/PageFiles/1152/A-3kWp-photovoltaic-installation-in-Clevedon1_512.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="177" src="http://www.halcrow.com/PageFiles/1152/A-3kWp-photovoltaic-installation-in-Clevedon1_512.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Let me stress from the start that one of the main outcomes
of an electric PV initiative is a substantial decrease in the carbon footprint
of the consumers. I will not expand on this issue in the current post because
of the space limitations but let me stress that each KWH produced from fossil
fuels produces about 1 kilogram of carbon dioxide. Therefore if Lebanon can
install a PV base capable of producing say 1 Billion KWH then our contribution
towards cutting down on carbon emissions would total about 1 Million Tons each
year. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>My rough estimate is that total
Lebanese carbon emissions are slightly over 20 million tons each year and thus
a plan similar to the following guidelines could reduce the Lebanese carbon
emissions by about 5%.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Let us start this small exercise by looking at the electricity
supplied in Lebanon by source. Just over 9000 GWH is supplied by EDL, another 4500
GWH is self generated and it is usually estimated that suppressed demand is
under a 1000 GWH. To add all of this up implies that Lebanon is in need of
about 14500 GWH which translates into a minimum of 1600 MW. The peak load is
often estimated at 2000 MW plus the 33% self generation which adds up to about
2600 MW.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
EDL, as everyone knows, operates at a large deficit that at
times approaches $2 Billion a year. The three basic reasons for this huge
deficit are:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(1) Technical losses of
capacity that is equal to 15% (2) 20% loss due to non technical reasons i.e.
not billed and (3) an artificially low electric rate of only 4.6 cents per KWH
for the households that consume 500 KWH per month.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The most obvious measures that must be taken by EDL are: (1)
Phase in an increase that would bring the average rate for the first 500 KWH to
about 8-10 cents. (2) The technical losses are very high by international
standards. The 15% loss could easily be brought down to 10%. If that can be
accomplished then that would provide over a $100 million<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>in revenue and (3) no electricity users
should be allowed to escape paying the going rate of the electricity that they
have consumed.</div>
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Short of the above measures that could eliminate most and
probably all the deficit EDL and the Lebanese government have the moral duty
and obligation to increase the proportion of electricity provided by the state
instead of the dirt self generation. One simple solution is an implementation
of a Photo Voltaic initiative whose total expense over say 2-3 years would be
under $2 billion and that can easily increase the amount of electricity
supplied by over 1.1 billion KWH and a potential annual income of $100 million.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
So how to do the above? Simply fund a quasi public agency
with installing for free the equivalent of 200,000 PV installations whose
average output per year 6000 KWH. It is estimated that each of these units can
be installed within one day by a work force of 6-8 workers. It is further
estimated that this task can be accomplished within 2 years by about 300 such
work groups each of whom can install 300 units a year at a total cost of about
$10,000 per system.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
As is evident from the above the current $2 billion that is
wasted on EDL subsidies could be diverted over time, say 2 years, to build a
200,000 unit PV infrastructure with a capacity of 1.2 Billion KWh that is
emission free and that will generate an estimated income of over a $100 million
per annum, which is an acceptable ROI.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
If the government can find the will to implement all the
above:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
(A)Increase the electricity rate to at least 8cents per KWH
for the first 500 KWH per household</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
(B)Cut down on technical losses from the current 15% to
about 19%</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
(C)Insist on making all users pay for the electricity
consumed</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
(D)Promote the PV initiative as outlined </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Then within two years EDL would be on solid financial
footing, self generated electricity would be cut in half and EDL would have the
financial strength to invest in a modern smart grid. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00826733025674909285noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-807039862321845767.post-76322063987710058342013-07-18T23:07:00.006-04:002013-07-18T23:07:57.128-04:00Lebanese Political System: Needs Creative Destruction.<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://www.cer.org.uk/sites/default/files/imagecache/spotlight_pages/innovation_sl.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="135" src="http://www.cer.org.uk/sites/default/files/imagecache/spotlight_pages/innovation_sl.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Contrary to what many of the Lebanese political leaders
often proclaim, the Lebanese political system is very highly archaic,
stultified, anachronistic and even feudalistic. It is a system that is rigid
and so it nurtures in its constituents a feeling of helplessness, a feeling
that change is difficult if not impossible. Such feelings do not encourage free
thought or free political thinking, such a system in essence is very
undemocratic and helps produce a static architecture, a society whose social
parameters hardly change. The individual fears self expression for the fear of
being ostracized by the group in which he/she was born , a group that acts as
the “modern” lord of the manor.</div>
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<br /></div>
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One easy way to understand the inefficiency implied by such
a political system can be best illustrated from the study of economics.
Microeconomics; price theory; is built around the concept that the most
efficient society is that whose structure conforms to the strict guidelines of
perfect competition. It is easy to illustrate, as every book in Econ 101, does
that as markets become less perfectly competitive then the degree of
exploitation and inefficiency increases. A popular such an explanation can
demonstrate mathematically that a perfectly competitive market will produce quantity
“a” of a good when a market that has 3 firms will produce ¾ of “a”, a market
that is a duopoly (two firms) will produce 2/3 of “a” while a pure monopoly
will produce only ½ of “a”.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Lebanon has adopted a system that is designed to be
inefficient since it essentially has divided the country into 3 tribes. Each
has its distinct identity and is not capable of thinking in terms of what is
good for the national good since in its narrow vision of reality it is taught to
think only of its own tribe , a narrow vision driven by selfishness. It also
happens that each of these tribes is a sectarian/religious one. The main
divisions are 50% of the seats in the chamber of deputies must belong to
Christians while the other 50 % belong to the Moslems who are almost equally
divided between Sunni and Shia. (The above does not take into consideration the
5% Druze). </div>
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As is obvious the three major sects have a fixed allotment
of seats and the great majority in each sect vote in favour of their religious
identity. A fixed allotment, besides being discriminatory by its nature, leads
to the stagnation and the inefficiency of a market where the 3 firms agree on
dividing the territory in question. This arrangement is not conducive to change,
to new ideas and to progress. It does lead, inadvertently to the most
conservative society, a society where the Schumpeterian and Marxist idea of political
creative destruction is alien. </div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
One easy explanation for creative destruction is the
inherent competition between the firms, in any market structure, provided that
the firms are not prevented from competing with each other. Boeing, the large
airplane manufacturer became at one point the hegemon in the commercial
aviation industry. That is when Boeing did not feel the need to innovate and to
listen to the demands of its clients. It actually became so arrogant that it
dictated to its clients what it thought was good for them. All of this changes
and for the better, when a few European countries decided to form Airbus which
introduced many a new technological breakthrough in airplane manufacturing.
This obviously shook Boeing to its roots and pushed it to respond by being
equally creative and equally efficient. The flying public gained from this.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This is unfortunately what passes for elections in Lebanon.
No one group, except for the Christians who are more or less equally divided
between the Sunnis and the Shia, feels the need to introduce new ideas and to
compete on the bases of policies that are favour the common good. In that case
elections are practically a sham, not because the votes are not counted accurately,
but because the puppeteers are still the same ones. In a sense Lebanon has had
the same puppeteers ever since its creation in 1920. </div>
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<br /></div>
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This charade must stop. Get rid of this system of specified
seats and let the people vote any way that they want to but let them vote
freely for whoever they want to represent them. Otherwise this silly and
archaic game will always have one result and one result only: a static
government and a cabinet that by having representatives from each group winds
up paralyzed and cannot govern. We need to introduce the incentive of creative
destruction otherwise we will continue running on the spot, as we have been
doing for almost seventy years. We need to have the traditional leaders fear
the outcome of elections so that they can be driven to become more open, less autocratic
and more responsive. No one, not a Salam, a Hariri, a Junblatt, an Arslan, a
Beri, A Gemayel, a Aoun, a Geagea…. Should feel comfortable about the outcome
of the vote. It is time that we act as Lebanese first temporally and we reserve our religious beliefs if any for the spiritual and personal side of our existense.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<br />
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00826733025674909285noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-807039862321845767.post-21055457280591365962013-05-21T23:21:00.004-04:002013-05-21T23:21:58.120-04:00Syrian Dictatorship On A Path To Perdition.<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://dingo.care2.com/pictures/c2c/share/27/279/948/2794875_370.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="218" src="http://dingo.care2.com/pictures/c2c/share/27/279/948/2794875_370.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The popular adage “What is good for the Goose is good for
the Gander” is meant to be a populist easy way to restate the Golden Rule which
was best expressed by Mathew 7:12 as <span class="versiontext">"In
everything, therefore, treat people the same way you want them to treat you,
for this is the Law and the Prophets”</span> is also seen as the foundation of
ethical reciprocity. An excellent illustration of this norm is practiced by the
young in their first few years of schooling during birthday celebrations: one
person cuts the cake while the other chooses which portion to take. If only grownups
can keep these lessons alive as they grow up. Maybe some of us try to practice
what we preach and attempt to be fair and consistent. Not the Syrian Government
and not Bashar Assad though. How can they be just when their total existence from
the inception of the regime is based on force, tyranny and illegitimacy? Their
constant fear of truth must be the only logical explanation why they pretended
to have elections. They forgot though that election proper rests on the
intrinsic right to free speech and free expression. Elections are supposed to
be a contest between various individuals who have different priorities about
how to improve the level of welfare of the public at large. These candidates
will explain to their constituents the various plans that they have and then
the voters will weigh these programs and determine which they think is best for
them. Elections in Syria have been a sham, every single one of them and the
reason must be that those who were ruling forcefully and illegitimately did not
trust those that they governed. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
All dictators are afraid of the truth and that is why they
set up these elaborate police systems in order to spread fear among their
citizens. Well the Syrian dictatorship is one of the worst. It has lasted for
over forty years by setting up what many have called the most cruel Stasi
machine outside of the then GDR, East Germany. Actually the Syrian police whose
role is to oppress, exploit and scare decent citizens was set up with the help
of East Germany. Where is East Germany now? It has bitten the dust and as
history teaches us all dictatorships will eventually bite the dust including
the Syrian rulers. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Syrian uprising has been going on for over two years that
have resulted in an abnormally high level of destruction, thanks to the selfish
Syrian dictatorship that is willing to pay any price to continue its rule of terror.
The losses, the real losses are not limited to the destruction of city quarters
and infrastructure but have resulted in over 80,000 deaths so far. Even that grotesque
price becomes small when compared to the price that the future generation will
have to bare.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This war is robbing the
youth of their future and nothing, absolutely nothing, can be crueler than
that.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This monstrous regime is not satisfied to mete out its
terror, which has also resulted in about a 1.5 million Syrians seeking refuge
in neighbouring countries and at least an equal number of refugees within the
country, but has the temerity to use an illegal militia from a neighbouring
country in order to launch well coordinated attacks with heavy weapons on a
city that had been overrun over a year ago by the opposition. This regime seeks
the aid of a well equipped and well trained illegal militia while it is lambasting
the opposition for its use of foreign fighters. The double standards do not
stop here either. This same Syrian administration has been complaining to
whoever would listen about light arms smuggling that has been coming into Syria
to help arm the FSA and its supporters level the field against the Assad
killing machine but yet this same administration has been smuggling, yes
smuggling, sophisticated weapons to arm militant groups in Lebanon. It does not
dawn on this administration apparently that if they have the rights to
destabilize others then maybe the Syrian people have the right to obtain some
arms to protect themselves from the common massacres committed against them by
the Syrian forces.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The irony does not stop here either. This same Syrian
government was proud to encourage and facilitate the crossing of Jihadists from
all across the Moslem world into Iraq but now that some of these jihadists want
to cross the border in the opposite direction this activity has become abominable.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
As for those that believe the constant refrain that this
Syrian reign of terror is justified because it is what is keeping Al Qaeda and
other extremists from taking over Syria I have fertile land for sale in the
Syrian dessert not to mention bridges in NYC. The Syrian people are asking for
a chance to write a new constitution with guarantees their individual right to
free expression, multiparty systems and open and free elections. They are
entitled to elect whoever they choose. If they so happen to elect an extreme Islamist
then so be it. The essence of democracy is to accept the will of the people. If
they find out that their choice did not deliver what was promised then they
will vote them out of office in the next round, they will not be forced to
accept a leadership that passes from father to son. The common Syrian has the
right to be heard and she will. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Dictatorships are always on a path to self destruction.
There is a limit to how much the public will take. Eventually enough courageous
people will ask for their freedom and will shout from rooftops that the emperor
has no cloths and that no one can enslave them because they are born free. The
truth shall set them free. The Syrian dictatorship is not any different; it has
been on its road to perdition for over four decades. That is inevitable.</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00826733025674909285noreply@blogger.com40tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-807039862321845767.post-36322261276297658292013-04-29T22:48:00.002-04:002013-04-29T22:48:54.991-04:00Can Natural Gas Save Lebanon? Nah.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://www.greenprophet.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/natural-gas-burner-israel-hands-560x327.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="186" src="http://www.greenprophet.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/natural-gas-burner-israel-hands-560x327.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
No
one doubts that laws of natural science; such as gravity and entropy,
the second law of thermodynamics; are universal. The same logic leads us
to believe also that many characteristics that could be viewed as
intrinsic are non negotiable and non alienable. Thomas Jefferson might
have expressed the above sentiment the best when he declared that rights
should be viewed as “derived from the laws of nature and <em>not</em> as the gift of their chief <em>magistrate</em>”.<br />
<br />
Economics, by and large, is also a field that operates subject to
universal principals that do not depend on race, geography or political
structure of the state under consideration. Excess supply of any
commodity or service, all other things being equal will lead to a
decrease in the <span class="IL_AD" id="IL_AD5">price</span> being asked for such a good. By the same token whenever the sovereign increases <span class="IL_AD" id="IL_AD6">money</span>
supply then the monetary unit would tend to lose part of its purchasing
power irrespective whether one is dealing with Dinars, Rupees or
Dollars. All the above is simple, clear and is held to be true by all.
Given the universality of such believes then how can one explain the
irrational idea that Lebanon is exceptional, at least when it is viewed
through the prism of national <span class="IL_AD" id="IL_AD4">debt</span>.
It is only logical that when a large number of countries violate a
particular standard and each of them gets punished for it then one is to
expect that any state that is to violate such a metric would be doing
so at its own risk. Lebanon has the fourth highest Debt/GDP ratio in the world, if one is to discount St Kitts and Antigua. Only Japan, Zimbabwe and Greece have a higher Debt/GDP ratio while each of the countries that had met major challenges arising from their debt had a lighter debt burden than Lebanon (Italy, Portugal, Iceland, Ireland, Spain and France).<br />
<br />
And yet we carry on as if there is no problem, as if we are
exceptional, as if we can defy the laws of gravity. The lack of
attention to such a major challenge is disheartening. Even the Ministry
of <span class="IL_AD" id="IL_AD8">Finance</span> does not bother to
publish updated information about this crucial issue; there most recent
figures are as of December 2010, only two and a half years behind the
times. Since Lebanon seems to have escaped the fate of other countries
with high sovereign debt so far it is only fair to speculate about the factors that have led to this. The most common reasons given are the following:<br />
<ol>
<li>Lebanon is a small economy and so its economic problems do not attract as much attention as larger states.</li>
<li>Lebanon’s geopolitical location in a sensitive part of the world
encourages many states to lend a helpful hand and many others to pretend
that nothing is amiss.</li>
<li>The almost 290 tons of Gold held by the central bank are valued at about $15 billion.</li>
<li>A constant in flow of funds from the Lebanese working all over the world.</li>
<li>The potential income from the off shore natural gas deposits.</li>
</ol>
<br />
What might be surprising, even shocking to many is that none of the
above is a reason to rejoice, not even the potential income from natural
gas if and when it is discovered and commercialized. A rough but
realistic <span class="IL_AD" id="IL_AD11">estimate</span> of the potential revenue from natural gas will be under a billion dollars per year when the interest on the <span class="IL_AD" id="IL_AD2">debt service</span>
is over $4 billion. Israel has just concluded selling 30% of its
Leviathan field to an Australian company for $1.25 billion. Yes natural
gas will help but it is not the panacea that it is hyped up to be. (Note
the childish ads that say”Now that we have fossils we can build an
army”). That would be such a waste.<br />
But even if one is to dismiss all of the above and to observe the
findings of the study that has become the gold standard for dealing with
deficits, national debt and economic growth by Rogof and Rheinhart.
They have shown very clearly that for over 300 years economic growth of
an economy becomes highly constrained by its national debt especially when that debt
gets to be about 9—95percent of the GDP. Lebanon’s is over 140 and will
go higher as the rate of growth of the economy is less than the <span class="IL_AD" id="IL_AD7">interest rate</span> to service the debt.<br />
<br />
The economic challenges on the horizon are challenging and unless we
face them head on instead of putting our head in the sand the future
will be very grim indeed, socially, politically and economically.<br />
<a class="post-edit-link" href="http://www.yalibnan.com/wp-admin/post.php?post=57545&action=edit" title="Edit Post"> </a><br />
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00826733025674909285noreply@blogger.com20tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-807039862321845767.post-83828014739375630142013-03-18T18:00:00.000-04:002013-03-18T18:00:06.294-04:00Fallujah Horror Revisited: Depleted Uranium<h3 class="post-title entry-title">
<br />
</h3>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQE4QzZGEyEnIoeI9p_8Elr9ENVDmtpc20WEm8juiXwgxMUhh71ag" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQE4QzZGEyEnIoeI9p_8Elr9ENVDmtpc20WEm8juiXwgxMUhh71ag" /></a></div>
We have often been told that war is hell. The residents of Fallujah,
Iraq, are finding out that war for them is the worst kind of hell
imaginable. Worse than Dante’s seventh circle if that is possible
because the after results of war in Fallujah will be felt for at least a
decade or two. One medical doctor We are not talking about physical
destruction of homes and factories or the total annihilation of
infrastructure such as water utilities, electricity generating plants,
sewage plants, bridges and highways. All of these can be rebuilt and
life will go on. In this case we are concerned with much more sinister
effects of war, effects that linger on and destroy life. What the people
of Fallujah, more than any other people in the world, are facing
everyday and every second of every day is hell on earth; they have to
witness the death of more than a quarter of the new born within a week
of their birth and to make the deeply painful decision of what is to be
done about the huge proportion of grotesquely deformed babies that are
born with two heads, three eyes, no limbs, one eye. <br />
<br />
The world owes the people of Fallujah an explanation of what has
triggered this avalanche of deformity and horror. The usual celebratory
experience of giving birth has been transformed to a time of anxiety and
horror. Women dread becoming pregnant and above all carrying the fetus
for nine months only to find out that what they are carrying has been
condemned to death the moment that life was to begin. Such rapid and
unique developments do not occur without a cause. The only logical
proximate cause for this human tragedy was the 2003 war and in
particular the 2004 assault on Fallujah. It was estimated that during
that assault over 10,000 tons of depleted uranium, DU, was used in the
bombardment of the city of 300,000 people.<br />
<br />
The results of a 2010 study that surveyed over 4000 people in Fallujah
concluded that "results seem to qualitatively support the existence of
serious mutation-related health effects in Fallujah" and one chemist
involved with the study said that he believes that we have evidence of
the "highest rate of genetic damage in any population ever studied".<br />
<br />
The above sad and troubling facts are another evidence yet that favours
the adoption of the major ecological idea known as "precautionary
principle". It simply states that nothing should be introduced into the
ecosystem without being as absolutely certain as possible that it would
do no harm. Sadly we keep ignoring this principle and we move from one
tragedy to the next: Gulf War Syndrome, Agent Orange and now DU weapons.
Will we ever learn. <br />
<br />
Both the Pentagon and the British governments insist that the use of DU
is not illegal and that the studies that they have undertaken do not
reveal DU to be a carcinogen. That might be true but many an
international body including the EU and the UN have been trying,
unsuccessfully, to prevent the use of DU munitions because there are
many physicians, engineers and studies that suspect that the DU produced
vapour in battles is capable of contaminating humans, soil and water.
It is this radioactive contamination that causes the severe deformities
in the newly born “things” since many of them do not look like humans. <br />
<br />
A group of doctors at the hospitals of Fallujah have documented the
severity of the problems encountered by the newly born and has
approached the UN and other world institutions asking for an
investigation to determine the root cause of this tragedy. Tragic
results from technological developments in war are nothing new. Agent
Orange was used extensively to defoliate forests in Vietnam but wound up
in causing the death and even childbirth deformities of thousands of
people that it was deployed to protect. McNamara, who approved the use
of Agent Orange never, forgave himself for all the damage and suffering
that his decision has caused to millions of people but especially for
loosing his son to an Agent Orange induced illness.<br />
<br />
The prospective new parents of Fallujah and the next generation are
being asked to bear the unbearable burden of seeing their children die
within days of being born or of giving birth to grotesquely deformed
beings. This is the result of a war of choice during which one side
made the deliberate decision to subdue a city by pulverizing it and by
subjecting its innocent civilians to the most incredible of human
sufferings. DU is an instrument of death and horror that must be banned
from use in war until serious and exhaustive studies can be made to show
the opposite. Meanwhile the heart of all decent and honorable citizens
in the world goes out to the suffering parents of Fallujah and to the
horror that they have been forced to live with. We must make sure that
such acts are never repeated again. DU; if found to be the culprit; must
be prohibited and declared in violation of the laws of war besides the
Declaration of Human rights.
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00826733025674909285noreply@blogger.com19tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-807039862321845767.post-46054350870538033932013-03-08T00:21:00.000-05:002013-03-15T07:04:33.389-04:00The Illegitimate Will Fall<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span id="goog_1345519902"></span><span id="goog_1345519903"></span>The son-God did not like any of this. Minions had dared
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village is to be blown up over all its inhabitants. He had to go out in a blaze
of glory. What a meaningless loss and what a fool he was. </div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00826733025674909285noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-807039862321845767.post-66373925302108084132013-03-03T18:13:00.001-05:002013-03-04T18:36:02.188-05:00Can the Lebanese Politicians Ever Abide by the Constitution?<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcT1dsWjZjwAwhN4tfoCaCiNA2nD5m9yZrn4ovucw5wL-mtEAqJGSw" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcT1dsWjZjwAwhN4tfoCaCiNA2nD5m9yZrn4ovucw5wL-mtEAqJGSw" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">It is
problematic when the leadership of March 14 never tires of asking the
government to resign. I happen to think that this has been a very ineffective
cabinet and that the time for a change is way overdue. But one should not
expect a cabinet to resign only because the opposition says so during press
conferences only. There is a legitimate parliamentary procedure to be followed
if and when any of the 128 members of the Chamber wishes to call for vote of
confidence in the cabinet as a whole. March 14, unfortunately has chosen not to
follow that path but instead to use the press to release statements that are
neither effective nor meaningful. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">If Mr.
Saniora wants us to really believe that he is the reasonable leader of a large
bloc of representatives in the Chamber then the least he could do is challenge
the cabinet in a vote of confidence, even one that his group cannot win. It is
the nature of these challenges that will keep the cabinet as a whole and each
of its individual members sensitive to the demands and needs of the others in
the state. The same logic, obviously, would demand nothing less than that by
Mr. Geagea and his Lebanese Forces if they are truly dissatisfied with the
policies and the programs of the present cabinet. As for Sa’ad Hariri, I am
afraid that he has given up the right to either head a new cabinet or even lead
a major bloc. Someone should remind Mr. Hariri that he got his chance and his
performance was and still is way below par. It is time for him to recognize
that politics is not his forte neither is leadership.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">None of the
above is to be interpreted as an endorsement of Mr. Mikati who had a chance to
repeat his previous performance as a PM but instead decided to play second
fiddle to Michel Aoun, Hassan Nasrallah and to act at times as if he is working
for Damascus. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">A democracy,
even a shallow one, is expected to at least be able to implement the major
constitutional declarations as prescribed by law. This means that nothing,
absolutely nothing, can justify not holding elections at the date specified by
law.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>One of the most sacrosanct
principles in the rule of law is to abide by the details of the law as
prescribed. These major institutional decisions are not to be handled casually
by changing them whenever one desires. Laws are to be respected and it is the
duty of governments, to take the constitutional responsibility very seriously.
Unfortunately very few, if any, in the present cadre of Lebanese politicians
seems to be up to this major task.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The Chamber
is clearly forbidden from electing to the Presidency an ex Chief of the Army
but yet that was exactly what they did without even questioning the
unconstitutionality of their act. As if that is not enough, they have failed
for twenty years to elect a Senate and to deconfesionalize the Chamber as well
as all positions in the government. Add to the above the fact that the central
government does not dare exercise its power in certain regions of the country
nor over some groups. It is not only that they tolerate the challenge to the
government authority but they even encourage it through their inability to
treat all regions and all citizens as equal. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The above are only the tip of the iceberg: This
cabinet as well as its predecessors have failed to combat corruption that has
become endemic, have neglected to construct a reliable electric grid in a self
described tourist state and have dared to introduce economic legislation and practices
that defy any and all teachings of any school of thought in the field. And
finally the cabinets for the past twenty years have acted as if the national
sovereign debt challenge does not exist; they hope that the probability of a
potential offshore gas find is going to resolve this issue. That is so
irresponsible that it reminds me of the Greek tragedies whose plot builds up to
a level that is impossible to solve until a deus ex machina appears. (A
heavenly solution</span><span style="font-family: Wingdings; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-char-type: symbol; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-symbol-font-family: Wingdings;"><span style="mso-char-type: symbol; mso-symbol-font-family: Wingdings;">:-)</span></span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">). </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The Lebanese
politicians have had so many opportunities to prove their allegiance to the
country, to democracy and to law and order. Unfortunately they have failed
practically every single time. I hope that they hold elections on time without
any resort to such gimmicks as extensions. If they fail this time then it might
be one time too many. </span></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00826733025674909285noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-807039862321845767.post-52160409331006224382013-01-22T21:19:00.001-05:002013-01-22T21:20:49.416-05:00Sectarianism and Democracy Do Not Mix. Don't Kid Yourself.<br />
If
two opposing sides are fighting each other with all what they have in
order to control a major corporation then the uncertainty and the
instability that their acts generate demoralizes most of the <span class="IL_AD" id="IL_AD2">employees</span>
and the valuation in addition to the performance of the corporation in
question plummets. A white knight comes to the rescue in the eleventh
hour by getting the two parties to stop their feuding based on the
principle of “equal shares” or “monasafah” as it is called in Arabic.
<br />
<a href="http://static2.demotix.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/l_crop_medium/1700-8/photos/1738138.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="224" src="http://static2.demotix.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/l_crop_medium/1700-8/photos/1738138.jpg" width="320" /></a><br />
That was a very positive step to end the hemorrhage and save the
patient from a certain death. Yet this solution could not be expected to
last. At best it was a stop gap measure in an effort to allow the
corporation to recuperate. You see one side to the conflict represents
60% of the capitalization while the other one represents only a 40%
share that is continuing to decline. The funny thing about this
settlement is that the side that represents only 40% of the
capitalization continues to act as if it is the single most important
element for the <span class="IL_AD" id="IL_AD9">survival of the</span>
enterprise in question and claims that it is the only democratic group
in this fight. Note the irony, those that represent only 40% of the
capital insists on a board that offers them equal power to those that
represent 60% and they threaten that if this is not done then that would
be a gross violation of all democratic principles.<br />
<br />
If a case similar to the above is ever presented to an MBA <span class="IL_AD" id="IL_AD3">class</span>
anywhere in the world the solution would be simple and straight
forward. All share holders should act in such a way as to enhance value
for other shareholders and not only a specific group since that would be
discriminatory. The solution would simply be to let those that are the
most qualified to run the show. If that is true of a corporation then
why not a country? Lebanon is the equivalent of the above hypothetical
corporation that is struggling for survival and that is looking for a
way out of this constant meaningless conflict between these two groups.<br />
<br />
The Lebanese Christian parties, all of them, have been very
disingenuous. They claim democratic principles but yet they insist that
their coreligionists are more important than others. This is reminiscent
of 1984 where all are equal but yet some are more equal than others.
Why is it so difficult for the Lebanese Christian politicians and the
Lebanese clergy, Bkirki in particular, to note the great contradiction
between asking for “monasafah” and yet calling that democratic. Whether
it is the Patriarch, Gemayel , Geagea or any of the others they must
know that what they are calling for is not fair, it is arrogant, it is
divisive and it is based on the principle that <span class="IL_AD" id="IL_AD10">Christians</span> are more important than others.<br />
<br />
Do the Christian leaders have a reason to fear their potential
partners? Base on the extremist language that gets all the headlines,
maybe they do. Yet the answer to their fears is not to try and
perpetuate a backward system but to instead seek a real and a meaningful
solution whereby all stakeholders would compete on a level playing
field that does not take religious affiliation into consideration.
Lebanon has a golden opportunity to face head on what it has been
avoiding for over twenty years. Give the various religious communities a
Senate but have the Chamber of Deputies run on only merit. Let us show
faith that no Lebanese will favour policies that would benefit only her
coreligionists but will instead support that which is good for the
commonwealth. It is time that all Lebanese come together to eliminate
fear and suspicion and to act for the good of the country. There is
still time to do this and there is no need for a phase in. Let us go
ahead and allow any Lebanese citizen to run for a seat in the Chamber of
deputies anywhere in the country and let us divide the state into 128
different districts. Taif mandates this, it is good for us and we must
go ahead and do the right thing. Nothing short of this is worthwhile. If
we fail to do this then we have no one to blame but ourselves.<br />
<br />
And finally let us be reminded that equality of citizenship is sort
of meaningless if potentially our best are not allowed to seek certain
offices for no reason besides the fact that when they were born they
were registered as belonging to this sect or that. What if one decides
to reject all sects? Does she then lose her citizenship? I should hope
not. That is why there are two hugely important <span class="IL_AD" id="IL_AD4">litmus tests</span>
about whether we are mature enough to reject sectarianism: civil
marriage and citizenship to the children of a Lebanese mother. Let us
not pretend that we are what we are not. No democracy can exist without
civil marriage and no democracy can exist without total gender equality.
If we cannot deal with these relatively easy issues then why should we
expect a solution to what has been the bane of Lebanon since its
inception: political sectarianism. Mr. Mikati has even refused to
consider looking into the possibility of adopting a civil marriage law.
How disappointing and how hypocritical. Should we really expect Mr.
Mikati to be able to handle the thorny issue of eliminating in one
swoop, once and for all, political sectarianism? Of course not.<br />
<a class="post-edit-link" href="http://www.yalibnan.com/wp-admin/post.php?post=52326&action=edit" title="Edit Post"> </a><br />
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00826733025674909285noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-807039862321845767.post-25488421884422691552013-01-08T21:44:00.001-05:002013-01-19T00:00:24.685-05:00Orthodox Gathering Proposal = Electoral Ghettoes<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<a href="http://www.smex.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/6-no-religion-255x285.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://www.smex.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/6-no-religion-255x285.png" /></a></div>
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http://mayazankoul.com/<br />
<br />
<br />
Any and all electoral systems that are based on the archaic,
discriminatory and undemocratic formula of monasafah (equal shares for Christians
and Moslems) are to be rejected on both democratic as well as moral grounds. It
is time for Lebanon to decide once and for all whether it wishes to be a modern
democracy that rejects classifying its citizens on sectarian grounds or whether
it wishes to pursue the tragic apartheid model.</div>
<br />
The only logical grounds for the Orthodox gathering electoral system proposal
is lack of trust that a Moslem Lebanese can be as motivated to do what is right
for Lebanon as a Christian one. That is not only laughable but is outright immoral
besides being anachronistic. To judge the ability of a person to serve her
community and her country based on her religious belief ought to never be
considered. What a shame that during 2012 the Lebanese ruling class is still
mired in such divisive meaningless tactics. Oh how I wish that we could heed
the admonishing of one of our great poets, Khalil Gibran, when he said “Pity a
nation divided into fragments, each fragment deeming itself a nation”.<br />
<br />
This country has been plagued by nothing but problems ever since its
inception economic, social political but none more destructive and more
corrosive than that of sectarianism. But despite that what remedies do we
suggest adopting to ease our estrangement from each other and national discord
but more of the same. What makes things worse is the fact that the old unfair
status quo in addition to the proposed even more undemocratic one have
originated in a religious church that proclaims peace and justice to be its
hallmarks. It is painful to say this in a society that claims to be guided by
the spiritual and by a sense of wholeness but both of the major Christian
churches of Lebanon have been nothing short of a huge disappointment. Both
churches appear to have purposely forgotten the teaching of Jesus, their savior,
that they should <span class="woj">“So give back to Caesar what is Caesar’s, and
to God what is God’s” as it was related in Mathew.</span><br />
<br />
<span class="woj">How, in the name of God, can a man of the cloth proclaim his
followers to be more deserving than those that were born into a different faith
or belief? How can we speak of God’s love to all but yet act as if one is more
important than the other not because of the individuals’ action or behaviour
but simply based on the accident of birth. If the Patriarch is to be believed
that the church has no political ambitions then why is it that he calls for
political meetings, takes political sides and issues political statements on a
daily basis? If some peop00le want to believe in religious mythology then that
is their own business but to proceed and dictate civil rights and the weight of
the vote on the grounds of their sectarian affiliation is catastrophic.</span><br />
<br />
<span class="woj">A modern state does not discriminate between its
inhabitants, all citizens are entitled to the same protection , enjoy the same
intrinsic rights and have an equal opportunity to seek any office, start any
business and support whoever they want. The separation of the church from the
state implies that the state has no right to segregate citizens into electoral
ghettos in order to please misguided and misinformed religious leaders.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A just society is one that does not
differentiate between its citizens based on the colour of their skin, race,
gender, sexual preferences or religious affiliations. It is paradoxical that
many agree that most of the above criteria are bogus yet they go out of their
way to rationalize differences based on how they pray ,for whom they pray or
whether they pray. </span><br />
<br />
Ever since its modern formation, Lebanon has been struggling to find avoid
the label of dysfunctionality as a state. Lebanon has failed to promote
citizenship and allegiance to the idea of the state. One reason for such failure
has been our propensity to feel comfortable in developing an overwhelming
religious identity, an affiliation that favours separateness to community. If
we are to prosper and escape this curse of systemic disposition to separate
instead of unite then we have to reject totally and immediately any electoral
system that amplifies the wrong and shuns the good in all of us. The Orthodox
Gathering electoral proposal, might be well intentioned, but is actually a step
backward from the already unjust current system. This rotten electoral system
in Lebanon will not be meaningfully changed by the elected elite since it is
simply against their interest to have us elect individuals based on their
qualifications and their ideas. May we elect an Armenian woman for President, a
Sunni for the Speaker of the Chamber, a Bahai PM and a parliament composed of
men and women whose religious affiliation if known is not important. <br />
<br />
One more thought: who decides whether I am a Shite, a Druze, a Maronite ... Who decides for me which electoral booth to enter? Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00826733025674909285noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-807039862321845767.post-40234610907047960762013-01-05T14:21:00.002-05:002013-01-05T14:49:47.188-05:00Does the Lebanese government care about 99.77% of the Lebanese? Apparently not.<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<a href="https://encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRfooPg_SsaH9srv0owjM4VSumtE7YjqBJ8wTH0RlPBQUSzSzIGDw" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRfooPg_SsaH9srv0owjM4VSumtE7YjqBJ8wTH0RlPBQUSzSzIGDw" /></a></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
A common mistake that is committed, all over the world, is
to assume that economic growth in the GDP of a country is synonymous with a
higher level of welfare for the populace of that country. The simple reason for
that error is the inability to distinguish between a larger economic pie for
the country and the shares into which that pie is distributed. Maybe the
easiest way to describe this is in terms of what has happened to the US economy
and has been popularized globally by the Occupy movement. There is no doubt
that the US economy has experienced growth both in nominal as well as real
terms over the past four decades. Yet the macro economic data shows that the
top 1% of households have increased their share of income from around 10% to
around 35%. That is obviously good news for the lucky few who belong to this
rare slice of the US population. But if the share of the top 1% has more than
tripled then this can only mean that the share of the others has declined. And
since the overall growth in income has been rather anemic then the data shows
conclusively that many; up to 75% according to certain studies; have not
managed to maintain the real income of 30-40 years ago. This is the phenomenon
that is widely discussed in the press and that occupied an important position
in the recent US presidential debates.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
So what does all of the above have to with Lebanon? My
recent analysis of the net wealth figures that have been released recently point
to a Lebanese problem that is even of a larger magnitude than that of the US
and that ; to the best of my knowledge; is never adequately addressed.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Ever since the 1990’s many Lebanese individuals, politicians
as well as media outlets have spoken favourably of the growth attained in the
Lebanese GDP and have even “boasted” about the expensive residential towers in
Beirut as well as its world class restaurants and luxury boutiques. The
underlying assumption by most is that this growth in Beirut and its environs
was good for the average Lebanese and is a sign of a healthy economy.
Unfortunately the facts paint a different picture.</div>
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<br /></div>
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Net Worth studies, which are not yet based on very solid
data but are becoming increasingly used as a gauge to understand world wealth,
have shown that the approximate total Net Worth of Lebanon is under $100
billion. (My own estimate places it around $90 billion). Unfortunately; and
this is the rub; Lebanon has only 9316 individuals each of whom can claim a Net
Worth of over a million USD. Look at the above statement again: less than ¼ of
1% of the Lebanese belong to the High Networth and this group, as small as it
is, lays claim to over $72 billion of the total $90 billion for the whole country.
This simply means that 99.77% of the people have 20% of the national wealth
when 0.23% owns the other 80%. This is a huge wealth gap by almost any standard
and is nothing else but a reflection of what ails the Lebanese economy. The
Lebanese governments over the past two decades have mismanaged the economy by
accumulating one of the highest burden of<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>national debts in the world and have employed these resources to
construct projects and infrastructure facilities that does not cater to the
quality of life of the typical Lebanese when common sense and economic
development principles would have called for investments that are fundamental
to the life of the typical person, spread all across the country and are
especially oriented towards job creation and poverty reduction. Why would
anyone expect a country to become a tourist destination when it lacks the
basics of electricity, modern telephony, crumbling transportation system,
expensive air flights and lack of security among many other shortcomings?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSHzMuzmR6EdQUUcJLwRdMF7bLn24Ucij9X5GK9NkHo7OT32rBd" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSHzMuzmR6EdQUUcJLwRdMF7bLn24Ucij9X5GK9NkHo7OT32rBd" /></a></div>
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It is true that Lebanon has been rebuilt after the civil war
but it has been rebuilt to cater to the needs of less than 10,000 individuals
and their immediate families. If it is assumed that the average size of the
household is 4 then all the fancy construction and the gastronomical delights
in addition to the luxury shopping emporiums cater only to 40,000 Lebanese
citizens to the exclusion of the other 4 million whose interests are not taken
into consideration by the Lebanese governmental decision makers. The best that
the over 99% can do is carry part of the debt burden created for the enjoyment
of others and participate by being onlookers from the side lines. This
misinformed policy will only have a disastrous ending.</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00826733025674909285noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-807039862321845767.post-36781990482752746072012-12-28T22:27:00.002-05:002012-12-29T10:08:00.128-05:00Can Lebanon Become a A Narco State Again?<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_9ipmCHOmyEc/SlL0v3UINqI/AAAAAAAABIU/c6R4_pJ3SlI/s1600/07center2_600.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="176" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_9ipmCHOmyEc/SlL0v3UINqI/AAAAAAAABIU/c6R4_pJ3SlI/s320/07center2_600.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in;">
The following is a brief summary
of the final chapter of the book <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The Lebanese Connection; Civil War,
And The International Drug Traffic</span></u></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span></u></b><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">by Jonathan Marshall, a fellow at “Stanford
Studies in Middle Eastern and Islamic Societies and Cultures” of Stanford
University. The book is a detailed account of the drug trade in Lebanon from
1970-1990 and is based on newly declassified reports and studies of the DEA and
the FBN; US anti drug agencies. The book is currently banned in Lebanon. The
ban has acted as the primary impetus behind this series, which comes to an end
with this final installment. I suspect that the Lebanese authorities banned the
book in an effort to shield many of the names, organizations and even foreign
parties that the book implicates as sponsors of drug trafficking and willing
participants in the all pervasive corruption that transformed Lebanon into a
narco state.</span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">“ Money is power in Lebanon. Money
buys guns and guns are power. It’s like gang warfare in LA”</span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>LA
Times Apr 17, 1990</span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">All modern
states have a relatively healthy segment that is labeled as the underground
economy. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That is a fact of life even in
the most advanced of economies that boast a strong law enforcement culture. In
many of these economies the underground sector is at times estimated to account
for about 20% of the official GDP statistic. Lebanon is a state that is
moderately prosperous and that surpasses the above yardsticks. It has been
estimated that the illicit drug trade has at times accounted for over 40% of
its GDP.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The Federal
Bureau of Narcotics of the US, FBN, has described Lebanon as a narco state as
early as 1950. Three factors that are often named as the fundamental reasons
for this development are its geographical location, the general proclivity of
its residents to commerce in addition to its weak governmental institutions.
Confessionalism promoted a stagnant political structure rife with corruption.
(Another argument in favour of secularism).</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">It is true
that the drug trade did help a large number of Lebanese earn a decent living
but even if one is to put aside the ethical and moral arguments connected to
the drug trafficking one still has to confront the unquestionable economic fact
that the drug trade has warped the macro economy of Lebanon. The drug trade
became the “Dutch Disease” of Lebanon; the growth of one sector at the expense
of other sectors in the economy. It also cemented the dependence on
international trade and gave other countries, such as Egypt and the US, an
opportunity to make demands of the Lebanese authorities to fight drugs. It
legitimized to an extent foreign interference in Lebanese domestic affairs.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The case of
drug trade in Lebanon and their role in both fueling and promoting the civil
war has also been used extensively as a case that supports ; at least partially
the “greed or grievance” debate. This was the idea popularized by Paul Coltier
of the World Bank as an explanation of civil conflicts the world over. He proposes
that “civil wars occur where rebel organizations are financially viable” and
that rebellions are not social protests but rather “the ultimate manifestation
of organized crime”. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The above
does not explain fully the Lebanese civil war but it sure explains the absolute
need for a viable financial resource if a militia is to launch successful
activities. This was the role of drugs in Lebanon especially between 1970 and
1990. Drugs became the Lebanese primary export commodity and the struggles
between various militias were in essence a fight over port outlets and other
means that enhance rent expropriation from primary commodities. As you can see,
some have used the above “logic” to make the case that drugs were not a means
but an end in themselves; drugs initiated conflict and did not only fuel it.
Above all it is clear that a most crucial ingredient in transforming a society
into a narco state, besides its geography, proclivity to commerce and social
injustice is the inability of the state to govern.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A weak, ineffective and corrupt political
structure might be in the final analysis the largest contributor to the
creation of civil conflict and the rise of dependence on revenue from the drug
trade. The above idea was put best by Brian Evans when he said that civil war
in Lebanon was “not caused by the emerging drug economy any more than the drug
economy was caused by the advent of the war. Rather, they were mutually
reinforcing trends”.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Allow me to
conclude this series by remembering the word of George Santayana that “</span>Those
who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The following is a list of the names of Lebanese politicians
and some high ranking officials that have been implicated by the evidence; and
not a court of law; as having been involved in the drug trade:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Bechara Khoury</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Riad Solh</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Sabri Hamadeh</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Ibrahim Haidar</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Ahmad Al Asad</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Camille Chamoun</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Abdallah Yafi</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Sami Solh</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Naif Al Masri</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Suleiman Frangieh</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Tony Frangieh</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Danny Chamoun</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Bashir Gemayel</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Walid Jumblatt</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Samir Geagea</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Chief of National Police Farid Chehab</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Head of Customs Police Edmond Azizeh</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Customs Director<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Salhab</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Genderarie Chief<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Nawfal</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In addition to scores of Palestinian, Syrian, Israeli, Armenian
and European individuals and organizations.<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00826733025674909285noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-807039862321845767.post-8912509775949863192012-12-20T00:33:00.001-05:002012-12-22T06:15:02.460-05:00Lebanese Drug Trade:A Melting Pot<br />
<br />
<div style="border: currentColor; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 1pt;">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://quitenormal.files.wordpress.com/2012/08/134442215790433654a_b.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="218" src="http://quitenormal.files.wordpress.com/2012/08/134442215790433654a_b.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="border: currentColor; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="border: currentColor; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in;">
<span style="color: red; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;">This is the 8<sup>th</sup>
installment of the book: </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="color: red; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 14.0pt;">The
Lebanese Connection: Corruption, Civil War, And The International Drug Traffic </span></u></b><span style="color: red; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;">by
Jonathan Marshall a fellow at Stanford Studies In Middle Eastern And Islamic
Societies And Cultures. The book is a scholarly account of the Lebanese drug
trade based on previously classified documents of The DEA and other US drug
related agencies. As is expected, the illicit trade account reveals names and
details regarding corruption and trafficking in which the Lebanese ruling class
has played a major role. I imagine that the only reason that the book is banned
in Lebanon is the attempt by politicians to keep the details of names and corruption
out of circulation. The only reason for these summaries is the strong belief
that in a free and responsible society transparency should be the norm. This is
an attempt to bring in sunlight over what the politicians would like to stay
covered up.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 16.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Illicit drug trade in Lebanon had
grown to become one of the largest in the world. Revenue derived from these
illegal activities dominated the Lebanese GDP and became a major source of
finance for all sorts of political groups and militias. Obviously such a
significant level of activities helped shape Lebanon through the various roles
that the Lebanese themselves have chosen to perform in addition to the role
played by the Syrian army in Lebanon besides the substantial trafficking by
many Syrian nationals, the most significant of whom were the Kassars. But these
were not the only major groups that took part in this type of activity. Of the
numerous other players the Israelis, Palestinians, Hezbollah and the Armenians
deserve special mention.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 16.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">What is most surprising is that
although the Israeli connection to the Lebanese drug trade has been rather
strong since the creation of Israel it has managed to stay below the radar
screen. One of the earliest documented connections is that Mossad had cooperated
and protected the smuggling of drugs by the Lebanese drug pin Sami Khoury
through Israel to Egypt. The same kind of cooperation also existed with the
Bedouins who supplied both Gaza and the Egyptian market with Lebanese Gold.
Access to Lebanese drugs increased as a result of the 1978 and 1982 Israeli
invasions of Lebanon. One unforeseen result of the drug trade with Lebanon
resulted in an explosion of drug use among the Israeli military as well as the
civilian population. One official estimate places the number or regular drug
users in Israel to have climbed to over 300,000 people. Lebanese drugs were no
longer just transiting through Israel but many an army member traded his issued
arms for drugs by claiming that they were lost. A drug bust in Tel Aviv during
1978 netted two army soldiers who gave information about their suppliers who in
turn squealed on the h top of the ring, one of the three regional Army
commanders. 1986 saw a major drug bust in the UK of Israeli drug dealers
attempting to deliver 1.8 tons of Lebanese hash. Another major arrest took
place in 1991 as the DEA agents in cooperation with Israeli police stopped an Israeli
gang from transporting Lebanese heroin to Israel and from there to Europe and
the US.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 16.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Many Israeli journalists pretended
that the Israeli Lebanese drug connection did not exist. They instead built
what amounted, in many cases, to fictitious charges against the Palestinians.
One prime example can be seen in Rachel Ehrenfeld who charged the PLO of acting
as a “Narco-Terrorist” organization that is bent on raising $300 million a year
for the purchase of arms. Her only source was an assistant of Benjamin
Netanyahu. Dennis Eisenberg was another such reporter who was willing to make
unrealistic charges. He claimed that in 1990 the PLO 9 what he called Poppy
Lovers Organization) that the Palestinians had smuggled that year over
300,000,000 pounds of hash. That is close to being impossible. Nathan Adams and
Claire Sterling were such reporters also. They charged the “PLO purchases an
estimated 40% of its light-infantry weapons with hash, heroin or morphine.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 16.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Practically all of the above had
been challenged by the Sunday Times in 1986. James Adams that” [Israeli] broad
accusations are a serious misrepresentation of the real situation and that
there is absolutely no evidence to support the contention that this is an
official PLO backed enterprise. Even Jack Anderson of the US had to express
skepticism by saying that:” The intelligence data…fails to pin down [drug
charges]” Even the DEA chimed in by stating that there is “no information
linking the PLO to drug trade”.What can be reasonably concluded is that the PLO
leadership did not feel the need or the urge to finance its activities through
the drug trade since the Arab regimes were willing to provide adequate funding.
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 16.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">A relatively new comer to the
political field of Lebanon was Hezbollah which was established in the
1980’sunder the guidance of Iran. It should not be a surprise to learn that the
same Rachel Ehrenfeld had accused Hezbollah of getting a fatwa that allows them
to market drugs “for Satan America and the Jews”.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 16.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Many of the other sources were more
circumspect. Rafi Peled, , an Israeli chief of police intelligence stated that
“Hezbollah had little involvement in the drug trade “while David Brooks of the
WSJ said in 1992 that the only Lebanese militia “that is not involved in the
drug trade” is Hezbollah. Even the Library of Congress concluded in a 2002
study that “the role of Hezbollah in drug production and trade in Lebanon…seems
not to be of a major dimension… Hezbollah does not encourage cultivation of
cannabis but tolerates it”.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 16.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">There was another ethnic group that
played a relatively substantial role in the promotion and distribution of
Lebanese drugs although its role has also been underreported. Many seem
surprised when the Armenian role is mentioned but in retrospect this appears to
be a natural development. When the Armenians were forced to flee the Turkish
massacres many came to Lebanon, Syria, Greece, France, Panama and the US. The
resulting ethnic gangs in each of these locations acted as bridge heads for
Lebanese drugs. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 16.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">One Lebanese Armenian, Hagop
Kevorkian, was a major drug and foreign exchange runner and a partner of the
notorious Sami Khoury while many of the Marseille heroin labs were reputed to
be owned by ethnic Armenians. This drug role was eventually helped by the
political structure that emanated among the Lebanese Armenian community.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><br />
</span><span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">The Tasnaq, an anti communist party,
received help from the CIA; the SAVAK in the 1960’s and was able to transform
the Beirut branch of the party into a policy setting organization for the rest
of the world. Both the Tashnaq and its counterpart the Hunshaq tried to avoid
being sucked into the Lebanese </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">internecine
civil war. But that was not to be. ASALA; Armenian Secret Army for the
Liberation of Armenia, attacked the World Council of Churches in Beirut for
encouraging Armenians to emigrate to North America. ASALA also had strong
relationships with Syria, PLO and Abu Nidal. As a result the Tashnaq had to
respond to this leftist challenge by forming the Justice Commandos Against
Armenian Genocide (JCAG).</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><br />
<br />
</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">But as expected such organizations require
substantial funding and both were drawn to the easy revenue from drugs. The
significant drug activities can best be seen through the numerous arrests that
were done by the Swedish, Danish and the French police against drug smugglers
that were Lebanese Armenians. Noubar Soufian of JCAG was the most notorious and
was arrested by the NY police in 1981 for smuggling Lebanese heroin to the US.
Noubar Soufian managed to get back to Beirut where he became a significant arms
smuggler for the Phalange and the Armenians in exchange for heroin.</span><span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" />
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<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"><ins style="border: currentColor; display: inline-table; height: 250px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; visibility: visible; width: 300px;"><ins id="aswift_1_anchor" style="border: currentColor; display: block; height: 250px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; visibility: visible; width: 300px;"><iframe allowtransparency="true" frameborder="0" height="250" hspace="0" id="aswift_1" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" name="aswift_1" scrolling="no" style="left: 0px; position: absolute; top: 0px;" vspace="0" width="300"></iframe></ins></ins></span>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00826733025674909285noreply@blogger.com42