The Privileged and The Disenfranchised

Democracy is much more than the right to vote. It is about accepting the other, personal freedom, liberty, social justice and equality. The franchise is a seminal part of giving individuals the right to vote in a peaceful and unintimidating atmosphere. But the right to vote becomes diminished when the system is designed to resemble a George Orwell hierarchy where all people are equal but some are more equal than others. Whenever that is the case then what many like to call democracy turns out to be a hoax upon closer examination.
There is lots of truth to the saying that we see the world from where we happen to be standing. We are after all, a product of our history and the sum total of our experiences but yet if we endeavour to be objective them empiricism offers us a reliable tool to overcome our biases and shed away the baggage that we had accumulated over the decades.
So how democratic was the Lebanese election that was held less than 48 hours ago. I am afraid that if we are to use the metric of equal votes then the show of democracy that many are still celebrating is a failure. Let me explain: The official lists of eligible registered voters in Lebanon reflected a total of 3,257,107 potential voters and the race between the various candidates was over 128 parliamentary seats. A simple calculation would easily show that in a state of bliss then each parliamentary seat should belong to a district of 25,446 votes. No country can have such an equitable allocation of seats per voters and so if we are to accept a deviation of = or – 15 % then an acceptable range of registered voters per parliamentary seat becomes 21,630-29263. On that basis then every district that has more registered voters than the upper limit is one whose residents are underrepresented and disenfranchised. The districts whereby the ratio of registered voters per parliamentary seat is under the lower limit of the acceptable range is a privileged district whose residents are overrepresented.
A review of the registered voters and the allotted parliamentary seats in each of the 26 districts reveals an unhealthy pattern. The following table represents the most under represented districts in Lebanon:
Registered Voters
Electoral District….……………….. Per seat
Bint Jbeil…………………………………..41132
Nabatieh ………………………………….40637
Soor………………………………………….38265
Meina/Doneieh………………………..32451
Akar…………………………………………..31934
Zahrani………………………………........30998

Figure1 Most Under Represented

Electoral District……………………Registered Voters per Seat
Kesrwan……………………………………..17845
Jazzine…………………………………………18063
Beirut1…………………………………………18552
Koura…………………………………………..19265
W. Beka’a/Rashia………………………..20415
Maten………………………………………….21343

Figure2 Most Over Represented

What is interesting is that all the other districts fall within the acceptable range with Beirut 2, Beirut 3, Ba’abda and Ba’alback at or vey close to the mean of 25,446 registered voters per available parliamentary seat.
So what is to be learned from this simple statistical analysis besides the need to redraw the districts and their respective seat allocations? It is easy and obvious to note that the top three under represented districts are in the south and are predominantly Shia while the most three privileged districts electorally are more diverse geographically but are predominantly Christian. The above observation is accurate but it does not tell the whole story. It appears that disenfranchisement has also a strong element of class besides religious confessionalism . It is easier to neglect the poor and considerably more difficult to dismiss the powerful. But the most interesting observation of all is the fact that the potential political benefit from over representation was dissipated since the two major political groups appear to have split these privileged districts. Even the potential political losses due to underrepresentation were significant but not overwhelming. An argument can be made to suggest that a more just allocation of seats could have netted the opposition another 3-5 seats but in a perfect world there would be no place for an illegal paramilitary authoritarian and undemocratic party would there be?